Real Sociedad to pile the pressure on Valencia

Posted by: csabax
30 May 2013
Football
Comment!

Primera Division Spanyol

It's the final day of the La Liga season and Paul Robinson is looking to add to his three odds-against winners last week. Here are his selections from Betfair's Sportsbook:

Deportivo v Sociedad - Live on Sky Sports One at 20:00 GMT

Back Sociedad @ 2.62 (13/8)

Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.37 (11/8)

In perhaps the biggest game of the weekend, Champions League chasing Real Sociedad travel to the relegation threatened Deportivo La Coruna. Sociedad need to win to have any chance of finishing in the top four and I think they are stand-out value to do so.

Deportivo know that victory will ensure their safety for another season. A draw would mean that victory for either Celta Vigo or Real Zaragoza would see them down and a defeat would almost certainly see them relegated.

Fernando Vázquez had taken his side on a run of seven unbeaten - four of which were victories - but they've lost two of their last three and need a result on Saturday. It's hard to knock their recent form at the Riazor; six unbeaten and three clean sheets, but I just have a suspicion that they're going to run out of gas.

The main reason for this is simply their opponents. Real Sociedad have been mightily impressive this year and have lost just one game since the beginning of January. They dropped from fourth place last Sunday though as they could only draw with Real Madrid, while Valencia won to go two points clear. Valencia face a tricky trip to Sevilla though and Philippe Montanier will be drumming it into his players that victory in A Coruna will earn them Champions League football.

With both teams probably needing to win I foresee plenty of goals. Sociedad's last five have all gone over 2.5, but I'm greedy and think we can get over 3.5 in at 2.37 (11/8).

Sevilla v Valencia

Back the draw @ 3.3 (23/10)

Back a 1-1 correct score @ 6.5 (11/2)

Valencia know that victory in Seville will seal their place in the Champions League next season but Sevilla are tough to beat at home and I think this one could end in a draw.

Sevilla are in ninth place, level on points with Getafe who are 10th. They are too far adrift of eighth to move up the table but there is a possibility that ninth could get European football so they won't be turning up without motivation.

Unai Emery's men have been terrible on the road and they fell to their 11th away loss of the campaign at Osasuna last Sunday. They are a different proposition at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium though and have won eight from 10 in 2013. The two they didn't win did come within the last month, but they were narrow losses to Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad - the latter one after being reduced to 10 men before the hour mark.

Valencia haven't missed out on Europe's elite club competition since 2009 but up until their victory at Granada last week they were out of the top four. Ernesto Valverde's team have gotten their act together at the right time and they've won their last four without conceding a goal.

The pressure is still on the Goats though as even a draw won't be good enough if Sociedad beat Deportivo - which I've predicted above. Victories have been hard to come by away from the Mestalla Stadium however - just three from their last nine to be precise - four of which were draws.

I think Valencia are far too short in the match odds market and the draw stands out as the value. A 1-1 scoreline is probably the most likely result and I'm willing to back that at 6.5 (11/2).

Zaragoza v Atletico Madrid

Back Atletico Madrid @ 3.5 (5/2)

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.0 (1/1)

Our final selection comes from Zaragoza as Real Zaragoza almost certainly need to win to have a chance of staying up. Atletico Madrid are their opponents and while they may not have anything to play for, their odds are far too big to leave alone.

Real Zaragoza didn't start the season too badly but things have turned sour in 2013. They've won just two of 20 matches in this calendar year - losing 12, including their last two. Manolo Jiménez's men did have a brief rally a few weeks ago as they recorded back to back wins over Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano, but they weren't able to build on that and they look destined for the Segunda Division.

Atletico Madrid have had a fine campaign under Diego Simeone and while they'll be disappointed with their relatively early exit from the Europa League, they have comfortably finished third in La Liga and will be pitting their wits against the cream of European football next season.

It remains to be seen if Radamel Falcao will still be at the club for that though as he's been heavily linked with a move away - possibly to Monaco. The Colombian has netted 28 goals in the league this year for Atletico and I'm sure he'll be trying his best to reach 30 in what could be his final start for Simeone.

Zaragoza will be pumped up for this and will no doubt throw the kitchen sink at their opponents early on but come the final whistle, I expect the Mattress Makers to have put the game to bed - probably with a clean sheet to boot.

Recommended Bets

Back Sociedad @ 2.62 (13/8)

Back Over 3.5 goals in Deportivo v Sociedad @ 2.37 (11/8)

Back a Sevilla v Valencia draw @ 3.3 (23/10)

Back a 1-1 correct score in Sevilla v Valencia @ 6.5 (11/2)

Back Atletico Madrid @ 3.5 (5/2)

Back Under 2.5 goals in Zaragoza v Atletico Madrid @ 2.0 (1/1)

Prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

(Source: Betfair)