Real Madrid gored in Pamplona

• Posted by: csabax
• 11 January 2013
• Football
• Comment!

 

Their star man is being disciplined and Tobias Gourlay believes the champions will struggle once more

Osasuna v Real Madrid

Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)

Osasuna 8.4 Real 1.49 draw 4.7

 

He's still only the world's second-best player, but this is important: Cristiano Ronaldo is suspended this weekend.

 

The Ballon d'Or runner-up has scored 24 in 26 this season. Even then Real have won less than half of their away games this season. Their record (W4-D1-L4) is an exact match with Zaragoza's and only a couple of those wins have been by more than a single goal.

 

Osasuna are bottom of the table, but there are reasons to think they can outperform that perilous position. They have conceded only seven times in nine home matches this season and have a history of making trouble for Real at the Reyno de Navarra (W2-D1-L1 against them most recently).

 

Under Jose Luis Mendilibar they are rarely beaten by more than the odd goal - just twice in 36 home games to date. Ronaldo's absence lends weight to the idea that Real will not beat a one-goal handicap.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Osasuna +1.0 @ 2.1

 

Valencia v Sevilla

Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)

Valencia 2.12 Sevilla 3.9 draw 3.65

 

This is a pretty straightforward call.

 

Valencia have won 6/8 at the Mestalla - and 3/4 anywhere under new boss Alejandro Valverde - while Sevilla have lost 5/6 on the road.

 

Propping up these records, los Che have scored at least twice in 8/9 at home, while Sevilla have conceded twice or more in each of their last six on the road.

 

Michel, the visiting boss, has players coming back to full fitness - including important ones like Colombian hardman Medel and creative type Rakitic - but they should not return the team to its early-season good form just yet.

 

One other thing: no has picked up more red cards at home than Valencia this season (four); and no one has had so many men sent off on their travels than Sevilla (five).

 

Just saying.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Valencia @ 2.12

 

Atletico Madrid v Zaragoza

Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Atletico 1.33 Zaragoza 12.0 draw 6.0

 

Atletico have won nine straight at the Vicente Calderon and are hot favourites to make it ten against Zaragoza on Sunday evening, when Radamel Falcao and Arda Turan return from suspension.

 

Diego Simeone's Mattress-makers have got ahead by half-time in 7/9 home games this term, so this column will be making its bed in the double-result market once more.

 

It's a bet that's also paid out in seven of Zaragoza's ten away losses under Manolo Jimenez, including this season's comfortable defeats at Barca and Real.

 

Falcao's individual numbers deserve a mention - he has found the back of the net in 7/9 Liga appearances at the Calderon this season - but this weekend's price (somewhere south of 1.5) does not.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Atletico/Atletico @ 1.95

 

Malaga v Barcelona

Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Malaga 8.0 Barcelona 1.48 draw 4.9

 

This is third at home to first.

 

Not that the market cares. It still makes Barcelona heavy favourites. And why not? They've won 17/18 this season, including 9/9 on the road, and will be at full strength on Sunday night. So they really should make it nine straight wins against Malaga.

 

But, might their hosts too know where the net is? Manuel Pellegrini's Anchovies have scored 11 times in their last three at La Rosaleda, while Barca have conceded at least once in 13/18 Liga outings this season.

 

Lionel Messi has caught Opta's attention: he's scored hat-tricks in each of his last two appearances against Malaga. We like him because he's recently scored two or more goals in 7/9 starts. You should get a longer price this time because Malaga have the league's tightest defence.

 

A final idea: Barcelona/Barcelona has won the double-result market in ten of their last 11 Liga matches.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.70

 

Getafe v Granada

Monday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Getafe 1.93 Granada 4.7 draw 3.65

 

Getafe grace the Monday-night stage once more.

 

The Madrid-based side have notched impressive wins against Real and Malaga at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez this season, but disappointed as favourites against smaller outfits like Osasuna, Betis and Levante.

 

Granada too are hard to read. They've scored twice in three away games this season, winning all of them, but notched only once in total on six other trips.

 

Pedro Leon, the Real-owned midfielder liked by Everton, is out for Getafe, so you might consider a small punt on the visitors to have one of their good away days.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Granada @ 4.7

 

(Source: Betfair)

 

Bet HERE

 

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