Goals anticipated in most Saturday games

• Posted by: csabax
• 11 April 2013
• Football
• Comment!

Jaymes Monte works through the Opta stats for this weekend's Premier League games and picks out his best bets...

 

Arsenal 1.26 v Norwich 14.5: The Draw 6.8

 

A fortnight on from being priced at 1.26 to beat Reading on home soil, Arsenal are the same price to defeat Norwich at the Emirates as their preferable list of  remaining fixtures becomes increasingly apparent.

 

Arsene Wenger's men are unbeaten in four Barclays Premier League home meetings with the Canaries (W2 D2), averaging four goals per game over the last three.

Only league leaders Manchester United have taken as many points from their last six Premier League games as Arsenal (both 15), while Norwich City are without a win in  seven away league games (D2 L5). So the short odds on a home win are justifiable and not worth taking on.

 

Considering Arsenal's scoring record in this fixture and that the Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term, betting on Over in  the goals markets is the way forward.

 

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.42

 

 

Aston Villa 2.32 v Fulham 3.5; The Draw 3.45

 

Amazingly, Fulham have never won a Barclays Premier League game at Villa Park, mustering just four points from 33 available at the West Midlands venue. And given that  the Villans come into this game on the back of three wins from their last four there's plenty of reason to back the hosts at 2.32.

 

Fulham, however, are also in good form. But for that last-gasp winner from Papiss Cisse at St James' Park last week they'd be unbeaten in six and, regardless, have won  three of their last five.

 

Instead of looking at the Match Odds I'd suggest a play on Over/Under 2.5 goals. The Cottagers have scored just five times in their 11 league visits to Villa Park and  failed to score in three of their last four.

 

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.92

 

 

Everton 1.45 v QPR 8.4; The Draw 5.0

 

Harry Redknapp billed last week's game against Wigan as a must-win for his side. Given that they didn't go on to pick up three points the conclusion must be that even  those within the club now realise that they will be playing Championship football next season.

 

Everton, on the other hand, still have plenty to play for after taking a point from their game with Spurs last weekend, but welcome the Rs having won only won two of  their 11 previous Barclays Premier League meetings.

 

The R's have scored 24 times in these 11 games against Everton; against no other side have they scored more than 17 in the Premier League. While Kevin Mirallas has  netted in three of his last four league games and Loic Remy has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances. The statistics suggest that goals are on  the agenda.

 

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.8

 

 

Reading 7.6 v Liverpool 1.5; The Draw 4.8

 

Like Rangers, Reading's Premier League fate was all but confirmed last weekend, when losing 2-0 at home to Southampton. The Royals have now lost seven successive  Premier League games, just one short of their top-flight record of eight straight defeats.

 

Add into the mix the Opta stat that Liverpool have won four of their previous five league meetings with the Royals and it's difficult to see Reading not equalling that  unwanted record.

 

In nine previous clashes with the Reds in all competitions, Reading have never managed a clean sheet, while Nigel Adkins' inherited side have the worst defensive  record in the top flight.

 

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.62

 

 

Southampton 1.92 v West Ham 4.4; The Draw 3.8

 

West Ham are the only Premier League team to have lost every game they have fallen behind in (10 matches) away from home in 2012-13, so the first rule for betting on  this game is that if Saints score first get on them In-Play.

 

Mauricio Pochettino's side have won their last three Premier League games with Jay Rodriguez scoring in each of them. The first time in his career that he has scored  in three successive top-flight games in his career.

 

Best Bet: Back Soton/Soton @ 3.3 in HT/FT

 

(Source: Betfair)

 

Bet HERE

 

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