And now the end is near...

Posted by: csabax
16 May 2013
Football
Comment!

England - Premier League

It's the final day of the Premier League season and while we won't be in for an exciting climax, Paul Robinson thinks there is plenty of value around. Here are his selections from Betfair's Sportsbook:

Newcastle v Arsenal

Back the draw @ 4.2 (16/5)

Back a 2-2 correct score @ 12.0 (11/1)

Newcastle take on Arsenal in one of only two really meaningful games and while The Gunners know that a win will secure Champions League football, I think that the draw is a huge runner at odds of 4.2 (16/5)

The Magpies have endured a difficult campaign that has been blighted by injuries and fixture congestion. Those excuses withstanding, Alan Pardew's men have performed well below par and they are very lucky to not need a result going into this game.

The pressure will be off for a change though and I'm sure everyone involved with the club will want to finish the season on a high. Hatem Ben Arfa is back from injury and he netted from the spot at QPR last weekend. The defence aren't up to much but they do at least have some quality players in the forward areas.

Arsenal are on a magnificent run of nine unbeaten since the defeat at White Hart Lane that many thought had ended their top four aspirations. Seven wins and two draws have lifted them about Spurs and they only have to match their rivals' result on the final day.

Arsene Wenger's side have looked a bit flaky at times though and they don't have a leader on the field to rally the troops when the chips are down. I just have a sneaky suspicion that an away win isn't the formality that the odds suggest and there could be one last twist to come.

The draw is just too big at 4.2 (16/5) and I also quite fancy a 2-2 scoreline at 12.0 (11/1) as we've had some high scoring results between these two in recent seasons.

Liverpool v QPR

Back Liverpool to win both halves @ 2.4 (7/5)

Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.1 (11/10)

QPR complete their miserable campaign at Anfield but I can't see them getting any respite from a rampant Liverpool.

The Reds are unbeaten in seven since their abysmal performance at St Mary's back in March. They put three past Fulham last time out and hit Newcastle for six a fortnight ago. Luis Suarez hasn't been missed at all as the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho have really stepped up to the plate.

Sturridge banged in a hat trick at Craven Cottage but it's the performances of the Brazilian that have perhaps been the most impressive. He is looking like quite a find by Brendan Rodgers as not only does he score goals, he creates plenty as well.

Harry Redknapp's appointment at Loftus Road was supposed to kick-start their survival bid. It never really worked out though and Rangers are set to finish bottom of the pile - further adrift than when the former Spurs boss took over.

They've picked up just two points from a possible 24 and scored only two goals in their last half dozen. Both those goals were scored by Loic Remy but given the recent stories about him in the media, it's not a certainty that he will even travel to Anfield.

Liverpool to win both halves at 2.4 (7/5) is probably my strongest fancy of the entire weekend and as I foresee a bit of a hammering, over 3.5 goals at 2.1 (11/10) is my next best.

Wigan v Aston Villa

Back Aston Villa @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75 (3/4)

This was billed as perhaps being the biggest game of the weekend but following Villa's recent hot streak and Wigan's back to back defeats, it's just another end of season match with nothing to play for.

Wigan went from cloud nine to the depths of the Championship after losing at Arsenal on Tuesday night. The FA Cup winners have finally slipped through the trapdoor after years of narrowly avoiding it.

While the Latics receive plenty of plaudits for the way they play, they simply haven't been good enough. Roberto Martinez's men have shipped a total of 71 goals this term and even though they've had one of their best campaigns offensively, conceding that many will likely always lead to relegation.

Aston Villa were odds-on to go down at one stage but Paul Lambert persisted with his team of youngsters and they repaid his faith in spades. Villa have won five of their last nine, including all the big clashes against their relegation rivals.

Christian Benteke saw red against Chelsea so he will sit this one out which is of course a blow for the Midlanders. Step forward then Darren Bent. The much forgotten England striker will surely be handed a start and this will be his one chance to show other managers what he's got before the transfer window opens up again.

This could go either way in all honesty so I think backing the team who are the biggest price is the best play. Villa are 3.4 (12/5) to pick up all three points, but for those who want a safer selection then over 2.5 goals at 1.75 (3/4) is surely nailed on.

Recommended Bets

Back a Newcastle v Arsenal draw @ 4.2 (16/5)

Back a 2-2 correct score in Newcastle v Arsenal @ 12.0 (11/1)

Back Liverpool to win both halves v QPR @ 2.4 (7/5)

Back Over 3.5 goals in Liverpool v QPR @ 2.1 (11/10)

Back Aston Villa @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back Over 2.5 goals in Wigan v Aston Villa @ 1.75 (3/4)

Prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

(Source: Betfair)