Zenit to withstand Anfield onslaught

21Feb 2013

Europa Liga

Liverpool need one of their famous European comebacks to reach the last 16 of the Europa League, but Kevin Hatchard isn't convinced they can overcome Zenit St Petersburg. He does however think Chelsea will march on.

Liverpool vs Zenit St Petersburg, Thu 20:05 BST, Live on ITV1

Match Odds: Liverpool 1.68, Zenit 5.6, the draw 4.2

Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers has made several public pronouncements of faith when it comes to turning this tie around, but make no mistake, last week's 2-0 defeat in Russia has left the Merseysiders' Europa League hopes hanging by a gossamer-thin thread. Liverpool's failure to score an away goal, despite the creation of several superb opportunities, could prove crucial.

Some observers have suggested Liverpool can take confidence from Sunday's 5-0 demolition of Swansea City at Anfield, but I think the relevance of that result can be questioned. The Swans made seven changes to their team ahead of Sunday's Capital One Cup final, and the fringe players put in a truly atrocious display. It's also worth considering that two of Liverpool's goalscorers on Sunday, Philippe Coutinho and Daniel Sturridge, are ineligible for Thursday's match.

Liverpool tend to be flat-track bullies at Anfield these days, and their home results against top-end Premier League sides are far from impressive. Manchester United and Arsenal both left Merseyside with maximum points, while Manchester City came from behind to snatch a draw. In the Europa League group stage Liverpool lost at home to Udinese and could only draw with Young Boys of Berne, and in the qualifiers only a late Luis Suarez strike saved them from an embarrassing defeat to Hearts.

A further concern is that Zenit are a dangerous outfit on their travels, with seven wins in their last nine away games. Luciano Spalletti's men have the best away record in the Russian Premier League, with six wins and two draws, and in the Champions League group stage they won 1-0 at AC Milan. Defeats at Malaga (3-0) and Anderlecht (1-0) show Zenit aren't infallible on their travels in Europe, but this time around Zenit have something to defend.

Liverpool need one of their famed Anfield displays, with stars like Luis Suarez and Steven Gerrard on top form, but the lack of an away goal in the first leg puts them in a tricky position. If Zenit score a goal at Anfield, Liverpool will need four goals to progress, and it's worth considering that Rodgers' side have kept just two Europa League clean sheets since the group stage began.

Liverpool look too short to me at 1.68, and you could oppose them in a number of ways. You could just lay them, or back Zenit +0.5 & +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.09 or back Zenit Draw No Bet at 2.78. I don't think Liverpool will keep a clean sheet, so back Both Teams to Score at 1.83.

Recommended Bets

Back Zenit +0.5 & +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.09

Back Both Teams to Score at 1.83

Chelsea vs Sparta Prague, Thu 20:05 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Chelsea 1.36, Sparta 12.0, the draw 5.4

The first leg of this tie was played with the intensity of a testimonial for a player that no-one ever really liked. It was a mind-numbingly turgid affair played in front of a crowd that sounded like they were sat 300 miles away. Oscar's late goal gave Chelsea an undeserved 1-0 victory which has surely killed off the tie.

Sparta have missed their chance to cause an upset, and the Opta stats make hideous reading for fans of the Czech club. Sparta haven't won any of their last ten away games in all competitions, while Chelsea have won eight of their last nine European games at Stamford Bridge. To make matters worse for Sparta, Chelsea have banged in 28 goals in their last nine European home games.

Chelsea will rest Frank Lampard and Branislav Ivanovic, but I still can't see anything but a convincing home win. I didn't see much in the first leg to suggest that Sparta can threaten the Chelsea rearguard, so it's worth a look at backing Chelsea to Win to Nil at 2.1. I am gobsmacked that you can back Chelsea -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0, so take advantage.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Chelsea -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0

Back Chelsea to Win to Nil at 2.1