WTA Indian Wells betting: Final

17Mar 2013

WTA új

It is time for the Final at Indian Wells and the guys at Abelson take a closer look.

Second seed Maria Sharapova overcame 13th seed and compatriot Maria Kirilenko 6-4 6-3 to advance to her first final of the year. In just over 1hr and 20 minutes she produced a masterclass of serving saving all six break points and posting and remarkable 83% win percentage on first serve points. At one point during the second set she held to love on three consecutive occasions without having to rely on a second serve, leading the commentator to exclaim, "seriously...when was the last time that has happened" For all her fight and determination, Kirilenko had no answer to the powerhouse that is Sharapova, but she can still walk away with her head held high. Sharapova's coach Tomas Hogsted has made remark on her drive and motivation this week, saying that there are no doubts about her focus and determination to get back to winning ways. Three from Nine in finals last year including 0 for 2 in finals at Indian Wells and Miami (next week's Masters event), Sharapova is clearly chomping at the bit to justify her coaches belief in her. If she performs like she did yesterday, she will have no problem fulfilling that desire.

In the other semi-final, Wozniacki dug deep to pull out a come-from-behind victory over Angelique Kerber. Trailing 6-2 2-0, and with Kerber knocking in winner after winner, there appeared to be no hope for the Dane. But an encouraging word from father Piotr gave her the motivation she needed, and after taking the second set 6-4, Kerber started to unravel at the seams. What was a winner in the first set became an error into the net in the final set, as she capitulated. In the blink of an eye Wozniacki was up 4-1 in the final set and, not before a little stutter where Kerber got it back to 4-3, she finally closed it out 7-5. Her exclamation on match point was poignant, as we saw the joy, relief, and satisfaction of a player who has recently had doubts about her own game, doubts about the coaching she was receiving, and as I have said before, constant pressure and media intrusion into her private life with golfer Rory McIlory. In this match we saw signs of the old Wozniacki, the player who in became World No.1 in 2010 and held that ranking for 67 weeks.

With a 6-2 head-to-head record, Sharapova comes into this final with a superior statistical advantage. Wozniacki however will not be deterred by this. Having made three finals in four years at Indian Wells, she clearly loves playing here. It was two years ago that she routed Sharapova 6-1 6-2 in the semi-finals en route to the title that year, but Sharapova will be buoyed by the fact that she has won their last two meetings, on the clay courts at Rome in 2011, and at Miami a year ago. What is interesting is that while Sharapova clearly loves it fast, she has proven she can defeat Wozniacki on slower surfaces. With the exception of a few double faults (which Sharapova is never going to be able to fix), her service stats have been near-perfect. The same cannot be said for Wozniacki, who was broken seven times by Kerber and only posted a 56% win rate on first serve points. Tonight Wozniacki will be the more consistent player in the rally, that is without question. Her ability to never miss the line is uncanny at times. With a mixture of moonballs and dropshots she successfully upset Kerber's rhythm in the semi-final, but Sharapova won't fall for the same trap.

I can not go against the way Sharapova is playing right now. With the same premise that I put forth in my semi-final preview, I maintain that Sharapova's serving ability will see her through tonight. Wozniacki's elegant and varied counter-punching style works against the majority of WTA player because they make too many mistakes, but I don't think this will be the case today. She has beaten Sharapova in the past, but Sharapova really looks like a player on a mission, and I love the way she is hitting the ball and right now I don't think anyone could, or would want to, stand in her way, and I think a straight sets victory is the most likely outcome tonight.