World Cup 2014 Antepost Betting: Argentina are no value bet

21Jan 2013

With World Cup 2014 approaching, Ed Malyon is taking us through the contenders from the CONMEBOL region and assessing their chances of glory in Brazil. Going through the teams alphabetically Ed begins with two-time champions Argentina.

Argentina

The South American qualification group is a gruelling, three-year marathon where the only thing that is important is crossing the finish line in the top five. That Argentina are currently top and may well qualify first will be of little importance to them or coach Alejandro Sabella, although after only securing their passage to South Africa 2010 by the skin of their teeth, it will be a welcome opportunity to experiment in their last few games.

Argentina's campaign has obviously been made easier by the absence of Brazil from qualifying, not to mention a Chile side that were far weaker under Borghi than they had been with Bielsa and a Uruguay in an inter-generational quagmire.

So taking it as a given that the Albiceleste can qualify, how likely are they to be lifting the Jules Rimet trophy at the Maracana?

Well, history is in their favour when you consider that the two World Cups that they have won were both hosted in Latin America, and although there have been a few customary blips in the qualifying process, these have been far outweighed by the positives of thrashing Uruguay, Chile and second-placed Ecuador.

How will they line up?

There is still a question over one full-back position, but otherwise it seems to be a fairly settled team. Pablo Zabaleta will occupy one of the berths, and it seems likely that whoever is in form when it comes to the summer of 2014 will be the fourth man in Sabella's defence.

The formation has been described as both a 4-2-4 and a 4-3-3, but the key to its success is undoubtedly the ludicrously-talented forward triumvirate of Sergio Agüero, Gonzalo Higuaín and Lionel Messi.

In midfield the first choice trio is Fernando Gago, Javier Mascherano and Angel Di Maria, and there is plenty of capable back-up too. It is in defence where things have been a bit more shaky, but Federico Fernandez and Ezequiel Garay are now a regular partnership in the centre, and providing neither suffers an injury or great drop in form we can expect them to continue up until the World Cup.

Strengths

As always with Argentina, there is an incredible pool of talent that Sabella has to choose from. The key part of the first 11 is the trio of Aguero, Messi and Higuain but when you consider that in reserve there is Diego Milito, Ezequiel Lavezzi, Erik Lamela, German Denis, Carlos Tevez, Lisandro Lopez, Rodrigo Palacio and another 18 months' worth of emerging talent, it is just frightening.

The midfield also boasts depth with Javier Pastore, Esteban Cambiasso, Ever Banega and Lucas Biglia all available to fill those central roles.

Weaknesses

The aforementioned defensive questions mean that finding a settled back four has been difficult. There is a school of thought that if Sabella can just find a solid defensive base then the rest of the team will take care of itself, and by persisting with Garay and Fernandez the team is at least beginning to build an understanding through its spine.

The reality is that Mascherano is probably the best central defender in the squad, but there has been no indication that he will feature there in a back four, so it is the likes of Fabricio Coloccini and Lisandro Lopez who are likely to be backup when it comes to Brazil.

The biggest concern now is who will play full-back. Zabaleta will no doubt fill one side, but the other spot is very much up for grabs over the next year-and-a-half. Juan Sanchez Miño is more of a midfielder but could be in at left-back, Neymar-slaying Gino Peruzzi looks to be the best talent on the other flank, but with the full-back role being so vital in international football it is integral that Sabella addresses this as soon as possible.

What do the odds say?

Only the hosts are seen as more likely winners on the markets with Argentina around 5.9 to lift a third Jules Rimet trophy in neighbouring Brazil.

It's hard to justify Spain being longer than this Argentina side with all of their quality and experience, but people are very wary of Messi, and with reason. The best player in the world makes this team tick and if he gets injured then expect the Argentina price to plummet.

The verdict

Undoubtedly in with a great chance of glory, and you feel that many neutrals will be supporting them out of a wish to see Messi crowned a world champion, erasing the one lingering doubt over his greatness.

By the time the trophy is lifted at the Maracana, Messi will be the same age as Maradona when he won at Mexico '86 and the stage is set for the flea to confirm his place as one of the best of all-time.

He will be the focal point, but the key to this team now seems destined to be its back four. If Sabella can find his functional and solid defensive line in as effective and intelligent a way as he worked out the best way to use his front three, then Argentina will be serious contenders.

Nonetheless, their current price is so short because they have nigh-on guaranteed qualification and with some blips likely to come in the run-up to the tournament, you have to say that if anything, Argentina are a lay-to-back at 5.9.