Wigan v Manchester City: Citizens to advance title case

28Nov 2012

Premier League

The champions can turn a couple of recent away Ds into a big W at the DW, says Tobias Gourlay

Wednesday 20:00 GMT

Live on Sky Sports 1

Wigan 7.0 Manchester City 1.57 draw 4.6

Wigan have conceded twice in six of their seven home league games this season and look like the gin and the tonic for Roberto Mancini, whose team have drawn blanks at Chelsea and West Ham recently.

Ivan Ramis, singled out for praise by Roberto Martinez recently, is out injured. He joins Antolin Alcaraz and perhaps Gary Caldwell on the sidelines.

City's squad is deep as the abyss. Sideline huggers like Jack Rodwell and Micah Richards are soon forgotten about, while another England international, Joleon Lescott, can't get back in the team.

Everyone else is fit - with the possible exception of Gael Clichy - and the visitors are amply stocked with attackers good enough to outscore their hosts.

Opta's noticed that City have a poor record when Mark Halsey's in charge (W1-D2-L11) but Wigan too have wilted under his gaze (W0-D2-L2) and there's barely enough here for an angry Tweet.

Over/Under Goals

More often than not under Mancini, City's away games have more often than not failed to produce three goals (29/54 have stayed Under 2.5 Goals).

But the DW Stadium's seen 6/7 go Over 2.5 Goals this term and the market fancies more of the same on Wednesday night.

Both sides have scored pretty freely to this point, but to do so they've needed a lot of the ball: Wigan have had more of the ball at home than anyone else excepted Manchester United and Arsenal; no one has more possession on the road than City. They can't both have 60 per cent of the ball this time.

City's defence is tightening, moreover, and might just have squeezed the value out of a 1.73 price.

Man City Win to Nil

City have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven league outings. Going head-to-head with Wigan, they are on a clean sheet streak of five.

Wigan have hit the net regularly at the DW, only failing to break down Chelsea on the opening day of the season, but Mancini's men are conceding fewer shots per away game than anyone else in the league.

Vincent Kompany might not handle Cristiano Ronaldo too well, but Franco Di Santo will be straight into his back-pocket.

And Jordi Gomez's reputation might have been swelled by a hat-trick at the weekend, but there's room for him in there too.

And if Nastasic is keeping Lescott out of the team, he must be OK too, right?

To Score

Carlos Tevez, benched on Saturday, should be raring to go against a club he's hit four past in five league games.

Edin Dzeko started Sunday's game at Chelsea and went a long way to confirming his status as the Premier League's foremost super-sub.

The Bosnian should make way for the Argentinian, who has scored from 5/11 league starts this season and should a comfortable odds-against bet by kick-off.

Best Bet

Back Man City @ 1.57

Recommended Bet

Back Man City Win to Nil @ 2.8