Value bets from the winner market and third round match-ups

Andrew Atherley has crunched the FA Cup numbers to bring you a huge selection of tournament betting options...

 

One statistical trend stands out above all others when it comes to betting on the FA Cup: it is a competition dominated by the big six to almost the same extent as the Premier League.

 

Since the last big FA Cup final upset - when Wimbledon's Crazy Gang beat Liverpool in 1988 - only eight different clubs have lifted the famous trophy. All of the current big six have won at least once in that period, with Everton (1995) and Portsmouth (2008) the only clubs to have broken the stranglehold.

 

Add in the luck of the draw and punters are going to be fortunate indeed to find the overall winner unless they go for one of the big names. Perhaps the best choice at this stage might be Tottenham at 11.5, as they are starting to gain momentum under Andre Villas-Boas and have a relatively easy start at home to Coventry.

 

But one of the many advantages of Betfair over traditional bookmakers is that you don't necessarily need to find the overall winner. You can get a good run for your money, and turn a profit, by backing one of the less obvious teams with a view to laying them at a later stage.

 

One of the best choices for that approach in recent years has been Stoke, who have reached at least the last eight in the past three seasons and were losing finalists in 2011. They are available to back at 44.0 this year and are likely to shorten if they can overcome a difficult start away to Crystal Palace.

 

It is notable that all eight of last season's quarter-finalists started their cup run against teams below them in the league standings (the seven Premier League teams that made it to that stage all drew lower-league opposition in the third round). Stoke fit that bill, but they may not be the most solid selection this time.

 

Another possible back-to-lay from the Premier League is Fulham at 38.0 as they start at home to Blackpool. Everton, Sunderland, Aston Villa and Wigan are others who have been given good chances to progress to the fourth round.

 

Another group of teams to consider is the top 12 in the Championship, who often feature a surprise performer in the FA Cup, granted a favourable draw. Last season Leicester were 12th in the Championship at the start of the third round and were the only team from outside the Premier League to reach the quarter-finals, losing to eventual winners Chelsea.

 

Leicester, drawn at home to Burton, have a decent chance of shortening again from their current 170.0, as do Middlesbrough from 160.0 on the assumption that they will have no difficulty disposing of Hastings at home.

 

Another way to profit from the solid form of the Championship top 12 is to back them in individual ties against teams below that level. Those may not be the most eye-catching games of the round, but the record of teams from the top half of the Championship is excellent in that sort of match-up.

 

The most attractively priced options this weekend are Millwall at 1.74 at home to Preston of League One, Leeds at 2.08 at home to Birmingham from the bottom half of the Championship and Derby at 1.79 at home to League One leaders Tranmere.

 

Another trend worth following is that ties involving short-priced Premier League teams are often high-scoring, particularly when they are away to a lower-league team. Ties with the potential to go over 2.5 goals at decent odds include Brighton v Newcastle at 1.88, Bolton v Sunderland at 1.93 and Crystal Palace v Stoke at 2.12.

 

Recommended Bets

Millwall to beat Preston @ 1.74

Leeds to beat Birmingham @ 2.08

Derby to beat Tranmere @ 1.79

Brighton v Newcastle over 2.5 goals @ 1.88

Bolton v Sunderland over 2.5 goals @ 1.93

Crystal Palace v Stoke over 2.5 goals @ 2.12

 

Bet HERE

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