Value Alert: Villa's chance to compound Arsenal misery

 

Using Betfair's unique customer tool, Christian Crowther explores where the value can be found in the weekend's Premier League games...

 

For those customers not yet familiar with Betfair's innovative new device, here's a brief reminder of just what the Value Finder is all about. The tool is designed to help punters establish whether the match outcome and over/under 2.5 goal odds offered on Premier League matches are an accurate reflection of the form being carried into the encounter.

 

Using factors such as short-term and long-term form, the variation in home and away performance, records against teams in a specific region of the table and recent head-to-head results, the Value Finder produces an alternative set of odds based purely on form.

 

The Value Alert widget contrasts those figures with the latest Betfair prices and flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence, identifying potential back or lay value.

 

So what are the Value Alerts for this week's games?

 

This week the Value Finder has found huge potential in backing Aston Villa at 11.0 when they visit an Arsenal team currently in season self-destruct mode.

 

The widget forecasts that Villa's true chances should be rated at 5.0, adding attraction to the Gunners' actual lay price of 1.37.

 

Given that Villa have already triumphed at Anfield this season and are unbeaten in three Premier League away trips, victory seems far from unobtainable.

 

Also of note is Sunderland's price to take the points from West Brom. They are available at 4.2 for Betfair punters, though a form-based breakdown would bring the Black Cats into 2.72 to achieve the same result.

 

Over to the goal markets, where the chances of QPR's Saturday afternoon clash with Manchester United returning under 2.5 goals is rated at 1.82, signifying the potential in exploiting the 2.18 offered by Betfair.

 

Meanwhile, the Finder spots a 0.49 discrepancy in favour of under 2.5 goals in Betfair's assessment of the same market in the relegation tussle between Reading and Wigan, available at 1.89 on Betfair.

 

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