Value Alert: Reading game looks ripe for over 2.5 goals

 

It's that time of the week where Christian Crowther looks for potential value in the upcoming Premier League fixtures...

 

The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records  against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices. This flags up the area in which public perception most  contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goal markets, identifying potential back or lay value.

 

Occasionally, one has to put one's hands up and admit a defeat. Last week was an instance where value didn't translate to profit, as demonstrated by Wigan's failure to  produce the form that hoisted them out of the relegation zone when entertaining Liverpool.

 

West Brom, however, did run Chelsea close in their visit to Stamford Bridge in keeping with the widget's prediction that there was more in it than the price suggested  for the Baggies.

 

Still, there's no point dwelling as there are plenty more alerts worth a look in the forthcoming fixtures.

 

According to the Value Finder, Tottenham's odds of winning at Liverpool, priced by Betfair at 4.2, could actually be shaved quite drastically, with a difference of 1.9 in the offing for potential Spurs' backers.

 

Tottenham have made themselves particularly tricky customers for Liverpool in recent times too. The Lilywhites have not lost to the Reds in their last five Premier  League meetings, winning three of those, including a 2-0 victory at Anfield two seasons ago.

 

This upcoming collision sees both teams in great form, but recent history points to more touchline-sprinting from AVB come Sunday.

 

Meanwhile, Swansea's trip to West Brom is worthy of a closer look. The Swans banished any notion of a Capital One Cup hangover by beating a resurgent Newcastle last  time out and, the Value Finder suggests their price of 3.25 may be a little on the generous side.

 

Saturday's relegation blockbuster at the Madejski has potential value lurking in the goals market, as two of the Premier League's most suspect defences square up.

 

When you consider that every one of Reading's last 11 games have breached the 2.5 mark, squeezing out 0.37-worth of value by backing this game to follow suit at 1.86 should prove worthwhile.

 

Bet HERE

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