Value Alert: QPR primed to boost survival hopes at Villa

 

With the rare treat of a full programme of Premier League fixtures in the offing, Christian Crowther goes in search of value...

 

The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices.

 

This flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goal market, identifying potential back or lay value.

 

Last week, the Value Finder pointed us towards potential value in the over 2.5 goals market as Reading played host to Aston Villa for a relegation six-pointer.

 

Those who backed it should be delighted that they squeezed an extra 0.37 out of Aston Villa's first comeback win in the league all season.

 

Meanwhile, Tottenham were the architects of their own downfall at Anfield after Jan Vertonghen's double act had put them in the driving seat. Take a bow Kyle Walker and Benoit Assou-Ekotto in the Spurs roll of honour.

 

So where does the widget see pound signs lurking ahead of the weekend's action?

 

One fixture flagged up by the Value Finder is Saturday's matchday 30 curtain-raiser at Goodison Park, where Manchester City are the visitors.

 

Of course, Everton received an FA Cup dressing down against Wigan in their last outing, but don't expect the Toffees to capitulate against the champions.

 

David Moyes' side are actually something of a nemesis to City, having only lost to Roberto Mancini's men once in their last seven league games - winning five times.

 

Three straight wins on Merseyside in this fixture also suggests Everton's Betfair price of 3.8 may be a little generous.

 

Elsewhere, QPR's quest for a third straight Premier League win attracts interest.

 

Harry Redknapp suddenly has the R's playing with the belief that they can survive and the widget suggests their actual form price makes their 3.5 rating to win at Villa slightly inflated.

 

Although Paul Lambert's side won at Reading, they've only won once in their last six league games at Villa Park, losing five.

 

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