Value Alert: Newcastle and Liverpool to serve up goals

 

With the aid of Betfair's unique widget, Christian Crowther finds some value in the upcoming Premier League fixtures...

 

The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices.

 

This flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goals market, identifying potential back

or lay value.

 

While Newcastle were unable to reward their backers with an extra 0.61 of value after being pegged back at the Hawthorns on Saturday, the widget (and this very column) still proved successful pointers last weekend.

 

Regular visitors to Loftus Road this season will need no reminding of how barren a home it's been for their beloved QPR, who arethe Premier League's lowest scorers.

 

The Value Alert widget flagged up the potential to increase those winnings on another goal-shy contest in west London and so it proved as the R's succumbed 2-0 to Stoke.

 

Interestingly, the widget has picked out some more price discrepancy in the Under/Over 2.5 goals market at St James' Park this weekend, where Newcastle entertain this week's headline makers Liverpool.

 

According to our value-hunting friend above, Betfair's price of 1.92 for the game to sail north of the 2.5 goals mark is actually on the generous side, giving away 0.48 in extra value.

 

This is a tempting bet when looking at Liverpool's recent results as seven of their last nine games in all competitions breached this mark.

 

Eight of the last ten meetings between these historic clubs have also risen above the 2.5 goals mark.

 

Despite Liverpool being without their gnawing number seven Luis Suarez, who is set to miss ten games, they have other potent goal threats.

 

Daniel Sturridge is returning to form after injury and Steven Gerrard has scored more goals against Newcastle than any other Premier League opponent besides Aston Villa.

 

Newcastle have Papiss Cisse to bang in the goals after notching three in his last five starts.

 

Elsewhere, a Manchester United win at Arsenal - rated at 3.45 - could be a potential value mine flagged up as 1.13 extra.

 

After all, United are chasing that record points total and have won six of their last seven Premier League clashes with the Gunners.

 

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