Valencia v PSG: Qatari cash set to humble hosts

12Feb 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

James Eastham believes PSG are ready to make a splash in Europe's premier competition...

Valencia v PSG (Tue)

Live on Sky Sports 2, 19:45 GMT, Match Odds: Valencia 2.44, PSG 3.35, The Draw 3.35

PSG's form suggests they're not only good enough to see off Valencia in this intriguing last 16 encounter but also potential tournament dark horses.

They are 1.56 favourites to reach the quarter-finals - Valencia are 2.56 - and seventh favourites in the outright market (30.0). That outright price is unlikely to shorten considerably unless they reach the semi-finals so there is limited trading potential, but they are nevertheless a tempting selection when you see the talent and quality the Qatari owners have drawn to the French capital.

Carlo Ancelotti's side go into this game on a run of 11 wins and a draw in their last 12 fixture in all competitions. That may say something about the standard of Ligue 1 but also confirms the squad-building PSG have embarked upon over the past 18 months is bearing fruit. As a club, the outfit from the French capital may lack Champions League experience but individually the opposite is true thanks to the presence of Ancelotti, Thiago Silva, Alex, Maxwell, Thiago Motta and Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the sidelines and pitch.

Valencia will be no pushovers. They are fifth in La Liga and go into the match in decent form (W5-D2-L2 in all competitions). But their low clean sheets count is a concern: their 1-0 win at Celta Vigo at the weekend was their first in six games, and of the five clean sheets they have kept in their last 21 games in all competitions, two came against Osasuna, the Liga's lowest scorers.

As Opta point out, the hosts are unbeaten in nine at home in the Champions League (W6-D3-L0) and have won 6/6 against French opposition in the competition. I'd be willing to take on the latter of those two trends. Given PSG's outstanding form the 2.44 on Valencia winning this first leg looks too short, so lay Valencia or back PSG on the Asian Handicap.

My second selection would be 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market. PSG have scored in 28 of their last 31 matches and no French side has managed to keep a clean sheet against Valencia in European competition.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Both teams to Score @ 2.0

PSG +0 Asian Handicap @ 2.4