United to gain revenge for Old Trafford defeat to Spurs

After a successful weekend involving the Manchester clubs Andrew Atherley has crunched the numbers again to come up with this week's best bets in the Premier League...

 

Another Super Sunday in the Premier League and this one could be even better than the last.

 

Not only do the two Sunday showdowns feature teams from the big six but all four contestants are currently in the top six too and they are four of the top five teams  on current form, which on paper makes this the best double-header in the Premier League this season.

 

The stats held strong clues to a Manchester double last Sunday, but punters will have to dig deeper to build a solid case this time.

 

Manchester United have obvious appeal at 2.52 for the win at Tottenham based on their away record of eight wins out of 11 and the decision for punters may well revolve around the likelihood of a Tottenham clean sheet.

 

United's two away defeats this season came when they were shut out by Everton and Norwich (the other failure to win was the 1-1 at Swansea) and their last away loss  when scoring was way back in March 2011 (3-1 at Liverpool). Since then, United's away record when scoring in the Premier League is won 22, drawn five and lost none.

 

Tottenham, however, have yet to keep a clean sheet in seven games against top-eight opponents this season and no team has conceded more than their 17 goals in matches  involving the top eight. Andre Villas-Boas' side have lost four and won only two in that category, although one of the wins was the 3-2 at Old Trafford in September  (the other was 2-1 at home to Liverpool).

 

It looks dangerous to assume Tottenham can beat United again in a high-scoring contest, but they have scored in all seven matches so far against top-eight opponents  and six of the seven have had over 2.5 goals.

 

The recent trend for big-six clashes to have over 2.5 goals is just as strong this season (76%) and, with United in great scoring form, another high-scorer looks  likely. Over 2.5 Goals is available at 1.72.

 

The stats are not as clear in Chelsea v Arsenal and, while some figures are in Chelsea's favour, they are not as appealing at 1.88 as United were against Liverpool last weekend at similar odds.

 

In a mini-table based on matches involving the current top six, Chelsea are top (three wins out of five) and Arsenal are fifth (one win from six) and the standings are  similar in matches between the big six.

 

All of Chelsea's wins against elite opponents have been on the road, however, and they have won just one out of eight at home to big-six opponents since the start of  last season (and that victory was achieved only after Manchester City were reduced to 10 men in last season's match at Stamford Bridge).

 

Arsenal are similarly suspect away to big-six opponents - four wins out of 13 since the start of the 2010-11 season (two of which were against Liverpool and another  was against a Manchester City side that played almost the entire match a man short). The other win, more significantly, was last season's 5-3 at Stamford Bridge but  punters will have to take a lot on trust to back an Arsenal victory.

 

Over 2.5 goals would be the pick on the big-six stats alone, but Arsenal have a strong tendency to under 2.5 goals on the road (73%) and Chelsea likewise in home games  (60%). The value on this occasion may lie in swimming against the wider trend, with Under 2.5 Goals available at 2.26.

 

Recommended Bets

Back Man United to beat Tottenham @ 2.52

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Tottenham v Man United @ 1.72

 

Bet HERE

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