Tykes the bet again in Yorkshire derby

28Mar 2013

England - The Championship

Mike Norman previews the Easter weekend's Championship action and predicts a low-scoring game at Ewood Park, Forest's excellent run to continue, and yet another win for in-form Barnsley...

Blackburn 2.58 v Blackpool 3.0; The Draw 3.4

This is a huge fixture in the context of relegation because pre-game I'd say both clubs are in real danger of being dragged into the 'battle to survive' - in fact I said so just 10 days ago in this Relegation Preview.

Having backed both clubs to go down I'd like to see either one of the clubs lose heavily here, or them to play out a dull 0-0 draw that will give neither side confidence going forward. I certainly can't predict a winner so I think the first scenario is a long shot, but I can definitely see this being a low-scoring encounter.

I haven't got a clue who is in charge of team selection at Ewood Park and I'm not even going to look it up because by the time I finish this paragraph he'll probably have been given the sack anyway! What I do know is that Blackburn are without a win in eight league and cup games, but more worryingly they've failed to score a single goal in six of those outings. At any level of football, if you don't score regularly you will struggle. It's as simple as that.

Blackpool are almost identical in terms of form and goalscoring - it's just one win in seven for Paul Ince's men and they've failed to score in five of those games. But the stat that staggers me is the one that tells us that The Tangerines have scored just one first half goal in their last 18 games. Incredible.

So expect this game to be a dull, low-scoring affair (cue a 4-4 thriller) and back the sides to go in at the interval goalless.

Recommended Bet: Back Half Time 0-0 @ 3.0

Nottm Forest 2.2 v Brighton 3.8; The Draw 3.5

A clash between two of the Championship's most in-form sides, but even allowing for Brighton's late surge into the play-off picture I can't for the life of me understand why Forest aren't odds-on to win this game.

True, all good runs come to an end sooner rather than later, and I'd happily leave Forest alone to win this game if they were around the 1.7 or 1.8 mark (which I fully expected them to be). But to see them available at 2.2 for the win, well I just can't let those odds go un-backed... and I haven't.

Billy Davies promised he had unfinished business at the City Ground when he was appointed last month and he has wasted no time whatsoever addressing it. Forest have won their last six games under King Billy's second reign, including a fantastic win at second-place Hull last time. Forest have momentum and confidence right now, and I don't see it coming to an end against a Brighton side who, albeit in good form generally, have been pretty poor on their travels.

The Seagulls have won five of their last nine league games and thrashed Crystal Palace last time, but four of those wins - including v Palace - were on home soil. Away from home they've won just one in seven, and managed just a single point and one goal in their last three away trips - all to clubs in the bottom half of the table.

Recommended Bet: Back Nottm Forest to win @ 2.2

Sheff Wed 2.3 v Barnsley 3.4; The Draw 3.5

It's hard to fault Sheffield Wednesday's form since December of last year. Their last 16 league games have resulted in eight wins and four draws; their total of 28 points in that time being on a par with the clubs chasing a play-off spot.

But the worry for me is The Owls' form at Hillsborough. Since the start of 2013, which takes in to account their good form outlined above, they've lost to Burnley, failed to beat lowly Wolves and Derby, and lost their last two home games - albeit against Forest and Cardiff - without scoring a goal.

Dave Jones' men have had a few decent home wins also, but they remain very inconsistent in front of their own fans and could be vulnerable in this Yorkshire derby.

Barnsley have done me some fantastic favours this season, but I don't continue to back them because they're a 'favourite' team so to speak, I back them because they are in such good form and always appear to be over-priced. Take this game for example - David Flitcroft's men have won 10 of their last 15 league and cup games, are playing a side below them in the league, and yet they are 3.4 outsiders in a derby game.

Granted, this should be a closely-fought encounter, but the fact that The Tykes have scored in each of their last 15 league games (averaging almost two goals scored per game in fact), and come into this derby match on the back of excellent wins over high-flying Brighton and Watford, temps me to put them up as my best bet of the weekend once again.

Recommended Bet: Back Barnsley to win @ 3.4 (best bet)