Two and a Half Goals: Tense affair expected at White Hart Lane

20Apr 2013

England - Premier League

After tipping four winners from four in the Premier League last weekend, The Inside Man aims to repeat that feat with another quartet of selections from England's top flight...

Saturday

Fulham v Arsenal

Fulham are a boom or bust kind of side, especially at home, where they've drawn just three of 16 league games. Win or lose though, matches at Craven Cottage usually have goals. Indeed, 11 of those 16 home games contained more than two-and-a-half goals.

With relegation no longer a concern, Martin Jol can afford to loosen the reigns on his side's attacking inclinations. Early in the season, Fulham could barely stop themselves from attacking with reckless abandon. As a result, 11 of their first 12 games produced high-scores. That approach needed to be, and indeed was, tempered. But now that the Londoners are safe, expect to see Dimitar Berbatov back to his goalscoring best, as he looks to repeat his two goal haul from when these sides played out a 3-3 humdinger earlier in the season.

Arsenal drew a blank against Everton last week, but that was against one of their close rivals in the race for a Champions League place, and so not losing was almost as significant as winning. Expect the Gunners to now return to the form that saw them score 14 times in their previous six games.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.76

QPR v Stoke

Well I said it a week ago, and it still rings true. Statistically, Stoke have by far the best defence in the bottom half of the table. Their problem is they just don't score enough. And both of these points were highlighted perfectly by the Potters' 2-0 defeat to Manchester United last weekend.

So what should we expect when Stoke travel to take on a QPR side who've drawn exactly half their home games, and are the only team in the division to have scored less goals than Stoke? If you still need help deciding, then consider the fact that five of QPR's six home games since New Year have been low-scoring, with those six matches producing a measly eight goals in total.

Stoke boss Tony Pulis really could do with a win, but a draw for him wouldn't be a disaster. And when you consider that his side have only won one, but drawn six, of their 16 away games, then suddenly a point starts to look the more realistic target.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.74

Sunday

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City

There's an awful lot riding on this game for both teams. For Tottenham, defeat would spark fears of near misses in recent years. While for City, defeat would finally snuff out their faint hopes of winning the Premier League.

It's funny how the mind plays tricks. For all the entertainment that Spurs produce at times, and for all the wonderful solo goals that Gareth Bale scores, the reality is that Tottenham don't score very many at home. In fact, from the teams in the top half of the table, Tottenham have scored the joint-fewest number of goals in front of their home fans, alongside West Brom.

This is certainly not a game Spurs can be gung-ho about. And you can be sure that Manchester City will be equally cautious, as indeed they are in all their away games. Nine of City's 16 away fixtures have been low-scoring this season, and I can see this becoming number 10, in a game with huge importance and where both teams will be nervous about conceding the opening goal.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.04

Liverpool v Chelsea

Expect Liverpool to have all hands on deck as they try to bail out their sinking Champions League campaign with a much-needed win over Chelsea. Following 0-0 draws in their last two matches, Liverpool have to go all-out attack against Chelsea. And that could well suit a Chelsea team that enjoys playing on the counter.

Prior to their recent mini-slump. Liverpool had been the team to follow for goals, producing 15 high-scoring matches in their previous 16 games. That's far too big a run to be a fluke, and so a return to goals is likely to happen sooner rather than later.

Chelsea have been full of goals on their travels, producing eight high-scoring games in their last ten on the road. And with Rafa Benitez sure to be keen on putting on a show in front of his former fans, it looks highly likely that both teams will get on the scoresheet.

A draw doesn't do Chelsea much good, and so I expect to see both sides going for the win in what should prove an entertaining and goal-filled encounter.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.79