Two and a Half Goals: Prepare for entertainment at Wembley

25May 2013

Betfair

The Inside Man goes across Europe in search of winning under/over 2.5 goals bets starting with the high-stakes final at Wembley and concluding with a mid-table affair in Spain

Saturday

Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich

The odds compilers will have you believe that this game is going to be eventful, and in an almost unprecedented move they have made more than two and a half goals an odds-on possibility.

The popular belief is that these finals are usually unadventurous, nervous, low-scoring affairs. This certainly was the case back in the 1970s, when the result was almost always 1-0. But it's not the case in the modern game. In fact, since the turn of the century, exactly 50 percent of UEFA Champions League finals have been high-scoring.

Looking at previous matches between the two sides can be misleading, as results can be affected by such variables as the venue, the competition, and event the context of the match. But essentially, this is an away game for both teams. And looking purely at recent encounters played at neutral venues, we find that both clubs have been ambitious in their approach, with a 2-1 win for Bayern in this season's German Super Cup preceded by a rampant 5-2 win for Dortmund in last season's German Cup final.

After last year's debacle, there's no way Bayern will let this go to penalties again. And so with two such talented, attacking line-ups on show, the price on their being goals looks the intelligent call.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.84

Lausanne v Lucerne

Meanwhile in the Swiss Super League, there's tension of a different kind, as last-but-one Lausanne look to avoid relegation.

Only one side drops down from Switzerland's top division, but with just three games to go Lausanne find themselves positioned just one point off the danger spot. With a home game against the team below them, Servette, coming up next week, they'll no doubt see that as their season decider.

They could of course ease their situation with a win this weekend. However, they look to be very closely matched with Saturday's opponents Lucerne, who sit just one place above them in the table. The two sides played out a 0-0 draw earlier in the season. Considering the situation, it's easy to see this being another cautious affair. And given that Lausanne have only won 25 percent of their home games this year, it's hard to be confident of them getting a win against anyone.

That said, with a one point buffer and next week's home advantage in hand, the relegation situation looks to be Lausanne's to lose. Points of any kind from this game would strengthen that hand considerably, especially given that Servette have a pig of a fixture as they travel to third placed St Gallen.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94

Sunday

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid

We look to be in for a 'Real' cracker of a game in the Basque country on Sunday.

Runners-up Madrid have run their race and have nothing to win. But with the 'Special One' set to depart, he may use these last couple of matches to send a message to fans and Board members alike about what they're going to be missing, by turning in some goal-filled, entertaining displays.

Meanwhile fourth placed Sociedad are on a roll and in with a great chance of reaching the Champions League qualifying rounds. To do that though, and stay ahead of Valencia, they need to keep winning, and so have to go for the throat against mighty Madrid.

And that means there'll be goals. As their need to win has increased, so has the number of goals in Sociedad's games, with their last four home matches producing a massive 21 strikes in total.

With Sociedad pushing forward, that will be like a red-rag to a Spanish bull for a Madrid team that was specifically designed by Jose Mourinho to be at its most effective when playing on the counter. There could be a hatful in this one, but I'll settle for the delicious price on offer for over two and a half.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.51

Athletic Bilbao v Levante

There's nothing to play for but pride in this clash between two sides lolling around in the comfort afforded them by a mid-table position.

Levante's lack of ambition has been visible in their results. Since it became clear that they would secure their league status, their production levels have dropped off, with four of their last five matches producing a distinct lack off goals.

Levante's away form also suggests this should be a low-scoring affair. Known for their impressive rearguard actions, the Valencia-based side known as 'the Frogs' have failed to make the leap from good defenders to solid all-rounders, with their lack of goals still an ongoing concern. Just 14 goals on their travels this season makes them the divison's 2nd lowest scorers on the road, behind only bottom of the table Celta Vigo.

Meanwhile, 12th placed Bilbao have drawn more home games than any other side in La Liga in this campaign. With three stalemates in their last five matches you suspect their desire to win has already gone, lost in a haze of early summer holiday plans.

You wouldn't rely on either of these sides to get you a win, in terms of ability or motivation, and so a game low on goals has to be the call.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.26