Two and a Half Goals: Go low at Old Trafford

9Feb 2013

England - Premier League

Four Premier League over/under 2.5 goals selections from The Inside Man

Saturday

Swansea v QPR

The Liberty Stadium has been the place to go for goals this season, with Swansea putting in some attacking displays along the way. In their last home fixture they were 3-1 winners over a notoriously rugged Stoke side, while in a recent 2-2 draw with Aston Villa, the Swans had a massive 25 shots on goal compared to Villa's nine.

A 3-4 home loss to Norwich, a 3-1 win over West Brom and a 1-1 draw with Man Utd mean that four of the Welsh side's last five games on home turf have been high-scoring affairs, producing an average of more than four goals per game. Michael Laudrup's side are hot in terms of goal production and now is the time to get with them.

Now I know you're thinking that QPR aren't exactly free-scoring. In fact, yes, they've been in a rut. But that's because 'Magic Arry' has been purposefully playing 10 men behind the ball. He knows his side's defensive frailties and has been trying to protect them. But time has now run out. He has to get wins to avoid relegation. So expect two up front and a more positive approach from Rangers in future, which should produce goals for them, and in turn, profits for us.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12

Southampton v Man City

On reputation, this game might look full of goals. But it's Fool's Gold.

Since the arrival of Mauricio Pochettino, the Saints have a looked an entirely different outfit. They are less of the kamikaze style team they used to be under Nigel Adkins, willing to engage in end-to-end attacking encounters, and have become instead a more thoughtful and organised side.

Furthermore, it's worth noting that Southampton were heading under a more cautious direction under Adkins as he sensed the need to reign in his team's wilder side. As a result, Southampton's last seven home games have all contained less than two and a half goals. That is why the layers are dangling a carrot in the region of 1.8 on their being goals in this game. But don't rush in where statisticians fear to tread.

Yes, the reverse fixture between these sides ended 3-2, but that was way back on the opening day of the season. And Man City are hardly in the best goalscoring form at the moment themselves. Indeed, five of City's last seven away fixtures have been low-scoring.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16

Sunday

Aston Villa v West Ham

I'm expecting plenty of passion and no lack of goals in this match. With Villa deep in the relegation mire, they will play to the few strengths they have, namely getting goals courtesy of Christian Benteke. With 10 goals for the season, the big Belgian is the one shining light in Villa's otherwise dismal campaign and Paul Lambert will be praying that he can be the light that guides his side to Premier League safety.

But while Villa have had no problems scoring, they've had an awful time defending, and according to the 49 goals that they've conceded in 25 games, they officially have the worst defence in the Premier League. As a consequence of their fragility at the back, but ability up front, eight of Villa's last nine home games have been high-scoring.

As for West Ham, they've conceded 11 goals in just their last three away games, so things are hardly goal well for them defensively of late. But they do have Andy Carroll back fit and scoring, which should give them every chance of causing problems for a Villa defence that is now well documented as struggling against set-pieces.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.98

Manchester United v Everton

It's the sorcerer against apprentice once again as Ferguson pits is wits against fellow wily Scot, Moyes.

Everton may have made the mistake of underestimating Aston Villa's goalscoring prowess, and in particular the aforementioned Benteke last week. But they will make no such misjudgement this weekend against United. Think back to when these sides met earlier in the season and you'll get a good idea of how Moyes will have his side line-up. Their 1-0 victory over the Reds on the season's opening day provided the template for everybody on how to beat United, and Moyes will be sure to use it once again.

Ferguson of course will be hell bent on revenge for that result but will have to temper his fury with the need to keep his players cool for their upcoming Champions League clash with Real Madrid. With a nine point cushion in the league, Fergie can afford to have his charges take it a little easier than usual in this game. Don't be surprised to see United taking their foot off the gas over the next few matches, just as they did, to almost disastrous consequences, last season.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.4