Two and a Half Goals: Four Premier League bets
It's a short Premier League weekend but we're still getting stuck in to four of the six games with a quartet of under/over 2.5 goals bets...
Saturday
Reading v Aston Villa
With both sides lying in the relegation zone, you might first expect this to be the clichéd tense, scrappy, low-scoring affair. But the bottom line is that neither of these teams can defend, no matter how much is riding on the result.
In fact, what we're looking at here are two of the three worst defences in the Premier League, with both conceding a fraction off two goals per game. Given that they typically need to score three each week to win, you can understand why both are struggling.
That shows, of course, in their results. Four of Reading's last five away games have been high-scoring. It's the same statistic for Villa from their last five at home.
Both Reading and Villa have scored in five of their last six matches. So their problems don't seem to lie up front. Hence, I expect both forward lines to be eager to get stuck into what they'll see as weak opposing defences. And with the onus on Reading, who are a point behind Villa in the table, to make the running, that should ensure we get the open game we're looking for.
Recommended Bet
West Brom v Swansea
This is one of those fixtures I purposefully keep an eye out for at this stage of the season, between two teams who've done enough to secure their league status and have begun to loll in the tepid comfort of midtable.
Essentially, what we have is two teams with not a whole lot to play for. From here to the end of the season, no matter what they might tell the media, the reality for the players, is that the pressure is off.
But even if you don't buy into that theory, you have to accept that in West Brom we have a team who are very solid at home. In fact, they have the fourth best home defence in the league, conceding less than a goal a game.
While in Swansea, we're looking at the third best away defence. Ignore their loss at Liverpool, when Michael Laudrup rested players ahead of the Cup final. The real Swansea defence is the one that conceded just one goal in its previous five away games. That's astounding form. And it also shows the defensive mindset the Dane employs away from home.
Recommended Bet
Sunday
Liverpool v Tottenham
Liverpool's games are packed with action. Twelve of their last 13 matches would have won you money if you'd backed them for more than two and a half goals.
Leading the way for the Reds is Luis Suarez. The Uruguayan is in red-hot form, having netted 10 goals in his last 10 league appearances. But whether or not it's Suarez who grabs the headlines, you can almost guarantee that Liverpool will get on the scoresheet. Only once in their last 15 matches have Brendan Rogers' side failed to find the net.
To be fair to their opponents though, they're not exactly slouches in front of goals either. Despite regular injuries to their first choice strikers, Tottenham have continued to create goals.
Their main way of achieving this has been by pushing Gareth Bale into more attacking situations, usually through the middle. As a result, the midfielder has netted seven times in just his last five outings. And with Jermaine Defoe back to replace the injured Adebayor, Spurs certainly look capable of finding the net at least once, something they've done in 13 of their last 15 games.
Recommended Bet
Newcastle v Stoke
There's no doubt about it, Stoke are in a funk, having won just two of their last ten. They don't need to push the panic button just yet, as they still hold a nine point advantage over the teams in the relegation zone. But manager Tony Pulis will nonetheless want to end this poor form right now.
So what do you do when you're struggling? You concentrate on what made you good in the first place. And for Stoke that means keeping things tight, as shown by the fact that 10 of their 14 away fixtures so far have been low-scoring.
Actually, the signs are that Pulis has already begun this tightening-up process, with three 1-0 scorelines from their last four games suggesting the Potters are now making a scrap of things.
For Newcastle, this match will be a tough ask, coming so shortly after a European game in Russia, where they were under the pump for long periods. That fatigue won't help their cause in unlocking a stubborn Stoke defence. Luckily for Newcastle though, they don't have too much to fear from the Potters' attack, which has netted just eight times in its 14 away games.
Recommended Bet
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Keywords: Two and a Half Goals, Premier League, bet
Source: Betfair
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