Two and a Half Goals Column: Don't expect a thriller at the Emirates

 

The Inside Man looks to this weekend's Premier League action for the games he fancies that will have Over, and the ones to have Under, 2.5 Goals...

 

Saturday

Everton v Fulham

 

Everton have failed to score in their last two matches. But games away to Arsenal and Sunderland are never easy and I expect those results to serve only to feed their  attacking intentions today. Have no doubt, Everton will go for the throat of a vulnerable Fulham side that arrives for away games like a gazelle with a gaping neck  wound seeking refuge in a lion's den.

 

To put things into perspective, only four teams in the division have won less away games than Fulham. The 11th placed Londoners have also conceded more goals on their  travels than any of the sides above them.

 

As for Everton, they've only lost once at home all season. And Goodison Park should prove a safe haven once again, as they look for a win to keep alive their slim  Champions League dream. Goals also come almost guaranteed for the Toffees, who've scored an average of two a game over their last nine at home.

 

Given that Fulham score on average more than a goal a game on their travels, it's fair to expect them to find the net too, and so three goals and higher looks the bet  here.

 

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75

 

 

Wigan v Tottenham

 

Everything here points to an excruciating 90 minutes of broken play and nervous football. Come to think of it, exactly like the game between these sides earlier in the  season.

 

On that occasion, Spurs huffed, puffed, and even switched Gareth Bale to the other flank in a bid to break down a stubborn Wigan defence, only to get caught on the  break and lose 1-0. It was possibly the most frustrating 90 minutes of football I've seen this season, and I'm not even a Spurs fan.

 

This time there's much more to play for, which will only add to the tension. Spurs have to get a result. So do Wigan. But after their last meeting, you have to expect  that this will be a tactical, chess-like encounter, as opposed to a pistols at 3pm shootout.

 

Like Cliff Thorburn in his pomp, Wigan are now in grind mode, as they look to eke out the points they need to stay up. Playing like this isn't pretty on the eye  though, and each of their last four matches have been low-scoring. Tottenham play pretty football, but are they up for a scrap? I suspect not.

 

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.12

 

 

Sunday

Reading v QPR

 

Harry Redknapp's appointment proves that big money plus a big name manager does not always equal success. But despite their miserable season, QPR could still provide  punters with something to cheer.

 

With his side's fate all but sealed, Harry now has the chance to loosen the reins on his team and play some attacking football. If they can't do it now, all but  relegated, at home, and playing the only team below them, then they never can.

 

We know Reading can't defend. That's why they are bottom of the table with a division-high 65 goals conceded. Throw in the fact that Nigel Adkins is now their manager,  with no expectations on him for this season, and the recipe for goals just gets tastier.

 

After being bullied all season, both these sides finally have the chance to pick on someone their own size. The second biggest thing after a pro footballer's paycheck,  is his ego. And this game is filled with players desperate to prove they are as good as they think they are. With both sides with nothing to lose, and crumbs of  comfort to gain, I'm expecting a healthy serving of goals here.

 

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92

 

 

Arsenal v Manchester United

 

Comments from United's manager have revealed a lot about his team for Sunday, with Fergie set to give a game to players like Nani and Anderson as he rests some of his  regular starters.

 

Don't get me wrong, it will be a solid team, but without Rooney and Van Persie, it will be a shadow of the side that's won them the title. The two players mentioned  have scored 36 of United's 78 goals this season. Their absence detracts a lot from United's goal threat, with Hernandez and Wellbeck, who are expected to replace them,  boasting just nine league goals between them.

 

Experience tells me, that with the title won, United won't be up for this game. I expect they'll compete, but not at their usual level. Arsenal though will be totally  focused. They want a win, while a draw could still be useful in the long run. They've struggled to score in the last couple of weeks, and will be up against a first  choice United defence in Vidic and Ferdinand. But with home advantage, motivation, and a weakened opponent, I expect the Gunners to dominate possession and eventually  find the goal they need.

 

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.24

 

Bet HERE

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