Tricky away trips for Chelsea and Liverpool

14Feb 2013

Europa Liga

Chelsea and Liverpool start the knockout phase of the Europa League away from home, and Kevin Hatchard expects tight matches in Russia and the Czech Republic...

Sparta Prague vs Chelsea, Thu 18:00 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Sparta 5.8, Chelsea 1.74, the draw 3.9

Chelsea's stunning success in the Champions League final last May seems decades ago now, such has been the turbulent period of self-destruction that has followed. The Blues' failure to reach the last 16 of Europe's premier competition this term has left them fighting for Europa League glory, and they head into this last-32 tie in poor form.

Chelsea's 4-1 home win against Wigan at the weekend was their first victory in five matches, a run that has heaped further pressure on manager Rafa Benitez, who remains as unpopular with Chelsea fans as the kid with the verruca at swimming lessons. Chelsea have been particularly wobbly on the road in the past few weeks - they were short of ideas in a 0-0 draw at Swansea that saw them exit the League Cup, they salvaged a 2-2 draw at League One Brentford in the FA Cup, and in the Premier League they threw away leads at Reading (drew 2-2) and Newcastle (lost 3-2).

Sparta Prague are no pushovers at their Generali Arena. They have won seven out of eight league games at home, conceding just five goals in the process. Their European home record this term is equally impressive. In the Europa League play-offs they beat Feyenoord 2-0, and in the group stage they drew 1-1 with Lyon and beat both Athletic Bilbao and Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3-1. Striker Vaclav Kadlec is the main attacking threat - the 20-year-old has scored four Europa League goals this term, and averages a goal every other game in the league.

Sparta are in their winter break, and haven't played a competitive game since the first week of December. You can take that one of two ways - with the glass half-full they will be well-rested and full of energy, but with the glass half-empty they will lack match practice. I think the former is more relevant, as Sparta will try to press Chelsea and frustrate them with energetic defending. Their primary target will be to avoid defeat and stay in the tie, and given their excellent home record and Chelsea's shaky road form, I think the draw looks overpriced at 3.9.

Recommended Bet

Back the Draw at 3.9

Zenit St Petersburg vs Liverpool, Thu 17:00 BST, Live on ITV4

Match Odds: Zenit 2.3, Liverpool 3.65, the draw 3.4

The Europa League is Liverpool's only remaining route to silverware, and Monday's disastrous defeat to West Brom damaged the Merseysiders' chances of qualifying for continental competition through the Premier League. Given the 12-point gap between Liverpool and 4th-placed Spurs, I would be surprised to see Brendan Rodgers field a weak line-up in Russia. Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho are ineligible, so I would expect the talismanic Luis Suarez to lead the line.

Liverpool's Europa League form has been erratic. The Reds topped their group despite winning just three of their six games, but away from home in Europe they have performed well. A 1-0 victory at Udinese booked Liverpool's passage into the last 32, they won 5-3 at Young Boys, and a shadow side only lost 1-0 at a strong Anzhi outfit.

Liverpool are generally pretty tough to beat on the road. In 21 away games in all competitions this season, they have suffered just five defeats. Recent draws at Arsenal and Manchester City showed that Rodgers has finally got his charges playing the way he wants them to, with accurate passing and excellent movement off the ball.

In the Russian Premier League this season, Zenit have been more effective away from home than on their own turf. Luciano Spalletti's men have won just half of their ten league games at home, and in the Champions League they won just one out of three home matches.

Zenit haven't played a competitive game since mid-December (see glass half-full/half empty discussion above), and it's also worth considering that they don't keep many clean sheets at home. Zenit have managed just two shutouts in their last ten home games, and given the Russians' fine away form, I think Liverpool know they may need to chase an away goal. On that basis I think it's worth backing Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.91. I think this will be a very cagey affair in the opening exchanges, with Liverpool trying to keep possession (their passing accuracy of 89% was the best of any team in the group stage), so I also like the idea of backing the draw at Half Time at 2.08.

Recommended Bets

Back Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.91

Back the draw at Half Time at 2.08