Torneo Final tip sheet: Once more opposing those layabout students

22Feb 2013

Argentina - Torneo Inicial

Lanús impressed again last week to take an early lead at the top, but River Plate are hot on their heels after another win. Atletico Rafaela and Tigre were both expected to be fighting it out at the bottom of the table, but after flying out the blocks and claiming good results in the early throes of the Torneo Final, are they realistic dark horses? Ed Malyon takes a look...

Friday

Estudiantes de La Plata v San Lorenzo - 00:15

It's hard to describe how bad Estudiantes have been in the first couple of weeks this season, and all the work that Diego Cagna looked to have done in re-crafting the side that had been left with no heart by Miguel Russo looked to be gone.

Estu have now lost their last four games on the trot, scoring just one goal, and their form has gone from patchy to worrying with their apparent lack of desire in both games they've played this campaign.

San Lorenzo are a side forced to play with heart by the threat of relegation, and Juan Antonio Pizzi's beliefs seem to be bedding themselves in at the Nuevo Gasometro, with his pressing style of football and improved defence improving results hugely upon the Ricardo Caruso Lombardi era.

In fact, San Lore are four games without conceding, including fixtures with last season's title chasers Belgrano and Lanús. In Pizzi's eleven games in charge San Lore have lost just the one match, and are unbeaten in nine, so their price of 3.6 looks terrific value against a struggling Pincha.

It's only twenty days since San Lorenzo played Estudiantes in the very same stadium that this weekend's game takes place in, and the visitors kept another clean sheet in their 1-0 win. Given their poor displays in recent weeks there is no way you can back the La Plata side, and it's a case of either laying them at 2.34 or backing San Lorenzo Draw No Bet at 2.22.

Saturday

All Boys v Boca Juniors - 22:15

It's hard to know what to make of either of these sides so early in the season, although the natural inclination would be to get behind Boca.

Carlos Bianchi has only had three games in charge, and their defence looked so bad in the first two that they were unbackable, so it was quite the surprise to see them keep a clean sheet last weekend and we were back to square one.

With probably the strongest forward line in Argentina, there was some surprise that they couldn't net against Tigre in that 0-0 draw, and going to Floresta to play All Boys has been a difficult place to go in recent seasons, with the Albo boasting a tight defence and exceptional goalkeeper.

That 'keeper, Nicolás Cambiasso, is still there, yet the defensive solidity that so characterised them over the last year or so seems to have vanished, with just the one clean sheet in nine games.

Boca's problem in defence has been that the personnel weren't accustomed to playing a high line, but All Boys' forwards aren't particularly the sort of players to exploit that weakness, with leading scorer Ivan Borghello much more of a penalty-box striker.

With this in mind, despite Boca's flaws (which extend to the ponderous Leandro Somoza at the base of the midfield) it seems that All Boys don't have the players to take advantage of an imperfect side, and are a lay at 3.45.

Lanús v Vélez Sarsfield - 23:15

Most weekends, this game would be our designated 'big match', with both clubs set to be title contenders once again, and both playing some pretty exciting attacking football fairly consistently over the last few short tournaments.

Lanús are our early leaders, having played two games, scored seven goals, conceded none and taken all of the points. It is worth noting also, that their game last week was against one of the best sides in the country - Newell's Old Boys - and they were clinical in despatching the Lepra 3-1, even if their defence looked occasionally on the ropey side.

Vélez were really, really poor last week and lost at home to ten-man Independiente. Considering the playing staff they have and their brilliant manager it was a huge surprise to see them beaten by a relegation candidate, but last season it also took them a while to click before going on a winning run - instigated by Facundo Ferreyra's goals - that sealed them the league title.

Having won comfortably in the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday there will be more confidence in the camp, but none of the Argentine sides playing in the continent's leading knockout competition managed to win domestically in the next game after the first round of Libertadores fixtures, and this is a concern.

With Lanús being at home, having had more rest and being the team in form, it looks as if they're the team to back, but the 2.26 looks a tad short for now and should be monitored.

Sunday

River Plate v Tigre - 23:15

As good as Tigre have looked since January, River Plate have arguably looked better.

The Matador have the element of surprise after such a torrid twelve months, but they also have little pressure on them with relegation almost a certainty a year ago before they escaped in remarkable fashion.

Playing for River Plate, on the other hand, means that you will never play without that immense weight of expectation that comes with that shirt and that badge, something some of their players have buckled under in recent years.

The current crop of River players look just about right though, and while a title challenge is expected every season, the Torneo Final could see them have their first realistic tilt at the top since returning to the top flight, having bought very well again in January.

Ramón Diaz's decision to bring in Leonel Vangioni will prove a masterstroke, with the former Newell's man providing the natural width on the left that they lacked so obviously in late 2012. Juan Manuel Iturbe is so highly-rated that he travelled with the Argentina squad to World Cup 2010, but after few opportunities at FC Porto, he now has the chance to impress and play more regularly.

Tigre's star man is undoubtedly the talented young playmaker Rubén Botta, but his attitude is questionable with some greedy instances on the pitch and a refusal to renew his contract off it. There's no point getting carried away with Tigre though, and it's likely that River's all-round quality will take this game away from them.

With home backing, we fancy the hosts at 1.98 to snatch this, with Rodrigo Mora the key man in attack.