Torneo Final Big Match preview: Racing Club v River Plate

 

Whenever two of Argentina's five grandes meet it is termed a clásico and this one is no different. Racing's disappointing start to the season looks to have turned  itself around while River's potential title challenge is beginning to falter, so Ed Malyon looks at a huge three points on the line at El Cilindro...

 

While both of these club have other rivals that are far more fierce, it's never a quiet day when Racing and River collide, and this Sunday will be no different.

 

Moved to an early kick-off for the usual security reasons, another significant move will be River, who switch to a 4-3-1-2 in an attempt to stop their run of poor  results. Injuries have taken their toll on Ramón Diaz's side, but just one win in four has seen the Millionarios drift to four points off leaders Lanús and Leonardo  Ponzio's absence will be a big loss to them this weekend.

 

Ponzio's consistent and assured displays with River earned him a recall to the full Argentina squad where he featured last Tuesday against Bolivia. Anchoring the  midfield, he not only breaks up play and protects a sometimes fragile defence but his passing often begins key attacks and he has a tendency to find the net from set  piece situations.

 

Without him, it will be up to Cristián Ledesma to hold the midfield together, with Carlos Sanchez and Ariel Rojas effective runners in the carrilero roles. The big  question for River is whether Manuel Lanzini will finally begin to deliver on his promise and impress in the 'number 10' role.

 

With River's great history of developing enganches (the typical South American playmaker) there has never been a shortage of creative talent coming through, but since  Erik Lamela's sale to Roma - and Diego Buonanotte's to Malaga for that matter -  in 2011, it has been a bit of a problem position for the club, with neither Lanzini  nor Mauro Diaz taking their chance when given the opportunity. Chori Dominguez returned to the club to help them win promotion back to the top flight in their hour of  need, but he is back in Spain now and using him as a short-term fix has now impacted the club's long-term progress.

 

In front of Lanzini this weekend is arguably River's second-choice strike pairing, but between 'Chino' Luna and Rogelio Funes Mori they have the same amount of goals  as David Trezeguet and Rodrigo Mora this season - even if it's Luna that has scored all of them.

 

Luna is a brilliant goalscorer at this level and has long deserved a starting berth in this side, but Funes Mori needs to begin delivering on his youthful promise if  the club aren't going to begin thinking about offloading him into the lower-tier European recycle bin (how they now wish they'd accepted an eight-figure offer from  Benfica last year).

 

Reverting to a back four is a necessity for Diaz principally due to the lack of centre-backs in the squad, and injury to four senior central defenders means that young  Colombian hopeful Eder Balanta will get his debut for the first team.

 

Alongside an experienced defender in a settled backline you may not have worried about blooding a talented youth-teamer, but alongside the questionable abilities of  Leandro Gonzalez Pirez this could be a whole different matter.

 

Racing - who have struggled for goals all season - will be hoping that defensive uncertainty falls in their favour as they look to continue a good little run that has  saved Luis Zubeldía's job (for now) and thrown them back into good shape for continental qualification.

 

Zubeldía's sporting director, former Argentina defender Roberto Ayala, spoke recently about some names he was considering to replace his head coach if things got  worse, and while it was hardly a vote of confidence for the young former Lanús boss it seems to have had the desired effect.

 

With their history and fanbase, Racing are a club expected to be in the championship mix every season but it has not panned out that way much over the last ten years  or so. Disintegration at an absolutely key point of the Torneo Inicial saw a rare title challenge slip away in November and hopes were high that Zubeldía's men could  go one better with so many of their potential rivals distracted by the Copa Libertadores during the Torneo Final.

 

Instead, one win in their first four games and a loss to archrivals Independiente meant Racing were once again playing for nothing and heaped the pressure on the  management team.

 

The game where it turned around was the draw with leaders Lanús, the game that sparked their current unbeaten sequence. While Racing's success last season was based on  the emergence of academy talents Luciano Vietto and Ricky Centurión, the latter's protracted - and ultimately unsuccessful - move to Anzhi disrupted the squad and now  he is back at Racing but unable to play after an ankle operation.

 

Without his spark on the wing, Racing had looked sluggish and the dynamic Vietto was swarmed by opponents who had correctly identified him as Racing's only real  threat.

 

The manager's solution was to promote another youngster into the first team to zap some life into an aging and sometimes pedestrian side, and Rodrigo de Paul has been  yet another revelation for the Avellaneda club. Fellow youth product Luis Fariña stopped sulking over his blocked move to CSKA Moscow and began pulling the strings in  midfield like he had in 2012 and suddenly Racing were back to winning ways and are now four unbeaten.

 

Carrying some good form it is not wholly unexpected that Racing may stick with the same XI that beat Estudiantes last week, although Javier Campora may feel hard done  by after scoring the late winner in La Plata. His experience and guile have been a great addition to Racing's ranks but starting with Vietto is the far more dynamic  and exciting option, especially up against Gonzalez Pirez who is synonymous with uncertainty.

 

A 3-4-2-1 vs a 4-3-1-2 will be an intriguing tactical battle but the best thing about this game is that it will give plenty of young stars the chance to shine, and the  narrative will likely be about the crowning of a new prince after this weekend's royal rumble at El Cilindro.

 

Racing: Saja; Ortiz, Migliónico, Cahais; Pillud, Bolatti, Zuculini, De Paul; Camoranesi, Fariña; Vietto.River: Barovero; Mercado, Balanta, G Pirez, Vangioni; Sanchez,  Ledesma, Rojas; Lanzini; Funes Mori, Luna.

 

Match odds

 

Even Racing's recent upturn in fortunes shouldn't make them as short as 2.3 for a game against one of their biggest rivals. Two points worse off than River, the key to analysing Racing's chances is looking more deeply at their results.

 

Yes, they've won three of their seven games this season but the three teams they have beaten are all in the bottom four - with two of them yet to pick up a victory.

 

The three games that River have failed to win have come against last season's top two and an on-form San Lorenzo, which suggests that the two-point gap between the  sides flatters Racing a bit.

 

With that in mind, backing River 3.45 or laying Racing 2.42 both look value shouts depending on your strategy.

 

Goals

 

River's makeshift defence has us reaching for the odds on both teams to score and we're not disappointed to see them odds-against.

 

There is no significant trend to River Plate's season with three of seven games going over, while Racing's stats show just two, and therefore we'll skip over putting a  number on goals for this one and pop a small bet on both sides finding the net in a game that will be more about attacking talent than defensive resilience.

 

Recommended Bets: Lay Racing at 2.42

Other bets: Both teams to score at 2.2

 

Bet HERE

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