Torneo Final Big Match preview: Godoy Cruz v Lanús

 

First plays third in Argentina this weekend, and while many may have expected Lanús to be in contention, Godoy Cruz have been the surprise package of the season so far  and would go top with a win in Mendoza at the weekend. A draw would allow River to leapfrog both sides, making this result an important one in the early jostle for  positions. Ed Malyon talks us through it...

 

There has been an element of the apprentices taking over from their master in the Argentine Primera this season.

 

The big managerial change of the off-season was undoubtedly Carlos Bianchi's return to Boca Juniors, with the Larry David doppelganger one of the continent's most  successful coaches ever, and the only manager to have won four Copa Libertadores.

 

A far smaller story was that of Martín Palermo's arrival in the far West of Argentina at Godoy Cruz, his first managerial role. Palermo was the burly battering ram of  a striker that in the team that won Bianchi's first Libertadores with the Xeneize, and along with his opposite number this week, Guillermo Barros Schelotto, they  formed a deadly partnership.

 

While Bianchi's struggles have been well-documented, two of his former charges have - in their first managerial appointments - led their respective teams into a  serious title challenge and on Sunday evening they go head to head for a crack at the top.

 

Lanús fell away from a proper Championship race last season, and their main problem was the lack of anyone scoring the goals. While they shared them around the team  and still managed to do quite well, the lingering feeling was that unless they brought someone in to replace four-goal leading scorer Silvio Romero then they wouldn't  be able to sustain a proper challenge for honours.

 

Rather than replace Romero, Barros Schelotto brought in someone to play alongside him in the shape of Ismael Blanco, and while Blanco - whose name literally means  target - provides his flicks, runs and decoys, Romero repaid his manager's faith with three goals in his first three games of the campaign.

 

He has now matched his mark from last season after just five games, and this has helped propel Lanús to the top of the league. Needless to say he's had some help, and  their defence has conceded just one goal so far - a consolation strike by Arsenal last weekend.

 

What is most impressive about Lanús' start is the calibre of opposition that they have played - and beaten - with wins over defending champions Veléz, a very strong  Newell's side and 2012 Clausura champions Arsenal, as well as a thrashing of Colón.

 

Godoy Cruz's good start has been a surprise perhaps, but on further analysis they have not beaten any team even close to the standard of Lanús. In fact, they've not  played anyone who finished in the top half of the Torneo Inicial standings and have encountered three of that bottom five.

 

Needless to say, you can only beat what is put in front of you but in horse-racing terms there is little credit to Godoy Cruz's formline.

 

One major advantage for Palermo's men is that they are at home. Mendoza is 29 hours by road from Buenos Aires, although most teams now fly, and the Estadio Malvinas  Argentinas is invariably a tough place to go.

 

Given the way Lanús have played this season, it may not matter.

 

 

Match odds

 

Lanús are marginal favourites for this one at 2.72 and that looks chunky when you consider the sort of sides they've been beating this year.

 

Their only dropped points have come on the road, at Racing, but the more fitting comparison should be with their 3-0 win at Newell's and there is certainly plenty of  support for the away win.

 

Goals

 

There is no major trend here, with two of the Mendocinos' five games going over 2.5 goals, while Lanús have seen three breaking that mark.

 

There is little support for both teams to score either, but 1.8 for 'No' doesn't really jump out at you.

 

 

Other bets

 

With Lanús representing the value, there is always the worry with away games in difficult stadiums that the hosts will snatch a draw. 1.82 to back Lanús 0 on  the Asian Handicap represents a good bet, or for tight games I often favour the Draw/Favourite on the HT/FT market and Lanús are 6.6 to prevail after a tight  first half.

 

 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Lanús 0 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.82

Back Lanús to win at 2.72

 

Bet HERE

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