Torneo Final Big Match Preview: Estudiantes v Godoy Cruz

14Apr 2013

Argentina - Torneo Inicial

Ed Malyon thinks Estudiantes are worth a lay at home to Martin Palermo's Godoy Cruz on Sunday...

Over December and January, the off-season in Argentine football centred around one man, Carlos Bianchi, and wondering if Boca Juniors' most successful manager could bring back the glories to La Bombonera.

He brought back Juan Román Riquelme, which was a symbolic glory but everything else has faltered for the Larry David lookalike while two of his former charges - and Boca legends - Guillermo Barros Schelotto and Martín Palermo have excelled in their first managerial posts.

While Barros Schelotto - assisted by twin brother Gustavo - has Lanús sitting pretty atop the league, the Granate are a well-run side from Buenos Aires that have been in the top-of-the-table mix for the last few seasons, for Martín Palermo in the footballing outpost of Mendoza it has been a lot more difficult.

Argentine football has always been very centralised with thirteen of this year's twenty top flight sides coming from Buenos Aires province, and that being a fairly low mark historically. Mendoza, a city in the Andean foothills that is closer to the Pacific Ocean than the Atlantic, is better-known for wine than football, but Godoy Cruz is the city's biggest club and one that has made much more of a splash in recent years.

Palermo's arrival at the start of this season was a gamble, but one that looks to have paid off with the Tomba only three points off the top after eight games and now showing any signs of slowing down. Defeat to leaders Lanús was their first and only loss so far this season and although their fixture list does have the appearance of one front-loaded with the easier games, you can only beat what is put in front of you and Palermo's men have done just that.

Their lucky run of games may end this weekend if the new manager 'bounce' takes effect at Estudiantes with Mauricio Pellegrino taking over at the club. A former Barcelona, Valencia and Liverpool defender, Pellegrino's first senior coaching role (after being assistant at both Liverpool and Internazionale) didn't really work out in Valencia and he was sacked on December 1 2012.

Given a chance in his homeland, the only way is up for Estu under Pellegrino stewardship and the fear for Palermo will be that his one-time Argentina teammate's arrival in La Plata will boost their faltering side enough to take the points on Sunday.

To give some perspective of how poor Estudiantes have been, club legend Juan Sebastián Verón is looking into a return from his playing retirement in order to help the club, a desperate and embarrassing move that could see the 39 year-old rejoining the squad after an operation to fix an existing knee issue.

The key man for them at the moment is Colombian striker Duvan Zapata, whose four strikes mean that he has contributed 50% of the club's goals this season. But considering Godoy Cruz have scored just one more this season and are twelve points better off, it rather suggests that the problem lies elsewhere.

Match odds

Without a win this season, there is no way that Estudiantes should be 2.4 to win this game.

Yes, Pellegrino may have an impact as new managers often do but equally he could take time to implement his methods in a squad that has been in a rut for some time now, arguably since Alejandro Sabella (now manager of Argentina) left the club in February 2011. The club have now gone through five managers since.

Godoy Cruz have been up and down in recent weeks but they don't like likely to lose this one, and 3.2 is big for them with the lay of the home side worth consideration or backing the visitors on the Asian Handicap 0&+0.5 at 1.85.

Goals

Estudiantes are one of only six sides whose games have averaged over 2.5 goals apiece this season, and three of their eight games have gone over that mark while they've had no goalless draws.

Godoy Cruz have had a better defence, and this is reflected in their average of just 1.88 goals per game including two games that didn't trouble the scorers.

There's no huge support for either over or under 2.5 goals, but with a price as big as 2.46 for the overs you'd lean that way on a purely value basis.

Other bets

For whatever reason, Martin Palermo's men don't start games too well and if every match this season had finished at half time then they'd be down in the bottom half.

On the strength of that statistic there is some temptation in Draw/Godoy Cruz on the HT/FT market at 7.4 or even Estudiantes/Godoy Cruz at a whopping 50.0 if they're to overturn a deficit at the break - just as they did on their last away trip, at San Martín.

Best bet: Lay Estudiantes @ 2.6

Other bets: Back Draw/Godoy Cruz on HT/FT @ 7.4