Torneo Final Big Match preview: Belgrano v River Plate

 

The first weekend of Torneo Final has already provided some surprises, and Belgrano will be looking to upset the odds again as they host the Buenos Aires giants that they relegated in 2011. Ed Malyon previews...

 

There have been few moments in the history of Argentine league football that have caused more shockwaves than the 2011 promoción tie between Belgrano de Córdoba and River Plate.

 

The loser over two legs would be relegated to Argentina's second tier, and with River being the most successful side in Argentine domestic football history, the thought of them getting relegated was completely out of the question.

 

Even having to play in the relegation playoff was an absolute disgrace to the club, but there was still a feeling that they would never face the drop, with conspiracy theories very confident that arguably the country's biggest club wouldn't be allowed to go down by the authorities.

 

Belgrano won the first leg 2-0 at their Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes, and people began to wonder 'what if...' and the historic moment was sealed when the final whistle was blown (after just 89 minutes) on a 1-1 draw in the return fixture.

 

Riots, recriminations and a year in the second tier followed for the Millionarios as they won the Nacional B but endured (and continue to endure) the endless taunts of their rivals, but they were given the opportunity to exorcise one of their biggest demons when River v Belgrano popped out the fixture computer for the opening day of the Torneo Inicial campaign in August.

 

In the ground where they'd been humiliated by a team they viewed as a small side from the provinces, they were gifted the chance to make immediate amends as they returned to the top flight as champions of the second tier.

 

But it wasn't to be.

 

Once more they were left stinging as goals a minute either side of half-time gave Belgrano a 2-1 win and the wound was further opened at the commencement of a season that would amount to very little for the Buenos Aires superclub.

 

Belgrano slipped under the radar, as always, and finished a surprising third without making a song and dance. The centralisation and Buenos Aires focus of the national press frustrates many but it was a blessing for the Córdobeses as they avoided the glare of the media and finished above all five of the Argentine grandes.

 

They meet on the opening day of the Torneo Final with River boasting a new manager and a couple of good signings, not to mention the confidence of some impressive friendly results.

 

Match odds Purely based on results and raw stats it seems mad that these two sides are considered as likely as each other to win this game.

 

Belgrano are 2.86, with River fractional favourites at 2.84. River's starting lineup is much better on paper, undoubtedly, yet Belgrano had such a habit of grinding out results last season (borne out by their league position) that it is difficult to oppose them in this one.

 

The Pirates conceded just three goals at home in their entire campaign, but having sold one of their defensive stalwarts to Boca Juniors, the obvious fear is that the will have been significantly weakened.

 

No players have arrived over the January transfer period, whereas River have strengthened considerably - especially in attack with Leonel Vangioni and Juan Manuel Iturbe - and now you see why the odds begin to make sense.

 

That said, it's hard to pick anything out of the match odds as a standout bet, but with River having scored one first-half goal in their last five league games under Ramón Díaz it may be worth looking to lay them with a view to backing in-running.

 

Goals Belgrano's defensive record in Córdoba has been mentioned and it's pretty damn impressive. They are well-organised and solid as a rule, so even Chiqui Perez's aforementioned departure shouldn't hurt them too much.

 

That said, River Plate's attack of Manuel Lanzini, Rodrigo Mora, Juan Manuel Iturbe and David Trezeguet is exceptionally strong, and the performances of Mora in particular will be vital to their season.

 

The under 2.5 goals price of 1.63 doesn't entice in the slightest, a better-value option may be looking at the 0-0 correct half-time score bet at 2.54.

 

Other bets In anticipation of a tight game, backing some low-goal correct score bets will be a popular option and 0-1 does seem tasty at 7.8 even if it might be worth waiting for the first ten minutes to pass so you can have an idea of how the game will pan out.

 

The pattern of play will likely be Belgrano setting up in two banks of four while River try and break with speed on the flanks, but if the hosts are successful in slowing the game down then and in-play dabble on them to edge the game could be a wise move.

 

Best Bet Half time Correct Score 0-0 at 2.54

Other Bets Lay River (to back in-play) at 2.82

 

Bet HERE

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