Toffees to come unstuck at Carrow Road

22Feb 2013

England - Premier League

After a successful foray in the FA Cup that brought three winners and a level stakes profit, Paul Robinson dives back into the Premier League action this week with some huge priced picks. Here are his Fixed Odds Selections:

Norwich v Everton

Back Norwich @ 3.6 (13/5)

Back Norwich draw no bet @ 2.62 (13/8)

Norwich host Everton on Saturday afternoon and I'm backing the home side to end their run of six without victory in all competitions.

Chris Hughton has had a mixed time in charge at Norwich. He came under pressure almost immediately following a poor start to the campaign which culminated with heavy defeats to Liverpool and Chelsea. He then reintroduced Wes Hoolahan to the team, playing him behind Grant Holt, and the Canaries went on a club record 10 match undefeated streak in the Premier League.

Things have tailed off since then however; knocked out of both cups and nine without victory in the league. On a more positive note though, they've only lost one of their last five, and at Carrow Road they have held Newcastle, Spurs and Fulham in recent weeks.

Everton have seen their challenge for the Champion League places suffer in February as they have dropped five points in their last two matches. Things took a turn for the worse on Sunday as they failed to beat Oldham in the FA Cup, although they should progress from the replay at Goodison.

My main concern about the Toffees is that they're just not playing as well as they were earlier in the season. Steven Pienaar, Nikica Jelavic and even Marouane Fellaini to some extent just aren't hitting the heights of 2012. Another worry I have is that the defence has been poor and gifting goals. Johnny Heitinga looks a shadow of his former self and Phil Neville's switch to right back hasn't worked as the former Manchester United player just doesn't have the legs to play on the flank anymore.

This looks like a good opportunity for Norwich to end their winless streak and their price of 3.6 (13/5) is just the icing on the cake. For those more conservative of you then Norwich at 2.62 (13/8) in the draw no bet market looks a safer option given that both teams have drawn over 40% of their league matches this term.

QPR v Man United

Back QPR @ 8.0 (7/1)

Back QPR to win 1-0 @ 23.0 (22/1)

It's leap of faith time now as I'm taking QPR to beat Manchester United at Loftus Road, and no, that's not a typo.

Rangers are rock bottom of the league, seven points adrift of safety and they put in an abject display last time out at Swansea. Harry Redknapp will have to be Harry Houdini to get them out of this mess but there have at least been signs that it could be possible.

Before that loss to Swansea a fortnight ago, QPR had gone five undefeated in the league, including a victory over Chelsea and draws with Spurs and Man City. They have kept three clean sheets in their last three at Loftus Road and while they've lost Ryan Nelson to the MLS, Chris Samba will be nearing match fitness.

Attacking wise, Junior Hoilett should return from injury and Loic Remy could be in the frame, although reports on his progress have been more evasive. The creative responsibilities will lie with Adel Taarabt who's excelled recently, and has perhaps been a touch unlucky not to have more goals and assists to his name.

Manchester United need no introduction and the 2-1 win over Reading on Monday extended their unbeaten run to 17 in all competitions. They are top of the league, 12 points clear of their nearest rivals and long odds-on to reclaim their crown.

Sir Alex Ferguson's men do have a habit of throwing in the odd stinker each season though. Who can forget Wigan away back in April of last year or the trip to Carrow Road in November. Both of those matches finished 1-0 to their opponents, which coincidently was the scoreline in their other two away defeats in recent times.

QPR will set their stall out to squeeze United and hit on the counter with Taarabt and co. It's exactly how they played against Man City and Spurs and they will do the same again on Saturday. I deliberated over selecting a draw and a 0-0 correct score but the price of Rangers was just too big to refuse at 8.0 (7/1) as was the 1-0 scoreline at a whopping 23.0 (22/1)

Reading v Wigan

Back the draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back a 3-3 correct score @ 46.0 (45/1)

Reading and Wigan complete this week's preview and this six pointer has got goals written all over it.

The Royals have come from nowhere to be within one point of safety and the defeat to Stoke in their last league match was their first since New Year's Day. Brian McDermott's side have become the comeback kings, thanks largely to Adam Le Fondre's contributions from the bench.

At the Madejski Stadium they have picked up 11 points from a possible 15 and scored seven goals in their last three there. They needed those goals as the defence leaked five after showing an improved resilience for a spell over the Christmas period.

Wigan find themselves in their usual position come this time of the year but Roberto Martinez knows exactly what is required to escape relegation, and it would be no surprise to see them do it again. Despite a number of cup victories against lower level opposition, the Latics have gone six without a win in the league, although they have drawn three of their last five.

The defence is an issue as with 51 conceded they have the worst defensive record in the entire division and they have kept just three clean sheets all season. They do have goals in them though and the return of Arouna Kone will be a huge boost as he creates so many chances for himself and his team mates.

This game could go either way but the draw looks like the value bet to me at 3.4 (12/5) and as both defences are somewhat shaky, I think a 3-3 correct score at 46.0 (45/1) could have some mileage.

Recommended Bets

Back Norwich to beat Everton @ 3.6 (13/5)

Back Norwich draw no bet v Everton @ 2.62 (13/8)

Back QPR to beat Man United @ 8.0 (7/1)

Back QPR to win 1-0 v Man United @ 23.0 (22/1)

Back a Reading v Wigan draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Back a 3-3 correct score between Reading and Wigan @ 46.0 (45/1)

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