The value lies with Lazio in Rome final

26May 2013

Tim Cup

The Italian cup final is all set to be a cracket with the Rome teams battling it out for the silverware. Lazio are the underdogs but they're Dave Farrar's idea of a good bet. Here's why...

After Serie A reached an unexpectedly dramatic conclusion last weekend, with Milan grabbing a last minute Champions League place, two teams who missed out on Europe go head to head in what looks like being a fascinating Italian Cup final. The Stadio Olimpico will host a final between Roma and Lazio, and for the average Italian football fan, it really doesn't get much more exciting than that. The stadium will be somewhere near sold out, will look a picture, and there's a cigarette paper between the teams.

Roma are relatively strong favourites to win the game, trading at 2.64 with Lazio available at a tempting looking 3.1. Roma won three of their last five Serie A games, and certainly have the bigger name players, but Lazio have twice outplayed them this season, winning 3-2 and then drawing 1-1, but looking much the better side on both occasions. Having endured a horrible run, Lazio then won three of their last four matches, and after a restful preparation away from the city in Norcia, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they caused an upset: in fact, it wouldn't be as much of an upset as that 3.1 makes it look. I think that the draw is a big runner here too, and prefer to keep that on my side, and so Lazio in the Outright Winner market is the best way of supporting them. They're currently trading at 2.2.

I think that there are solid reasons why Lazio play so well against Roma. Reasons that go beyond the simplistic idea that they have some kind of psychological edge. Lazio are able to get at Roma both via Hernanes in a central area, and with pace and power in wide areas via Antonio Candreva and Senad Lulic. That makes Roma's far from convincing defence vulnerable, and Aurelio Andreazzoli will think very carefully about adjusting his tactics to try and nullify Lazio. Daniele De Rossi could have a big part to play. That's why under 2.5 goals also look worth following at a shade over evens.

There'll be an oppressive atmosphere, there'll be the worry of making a mistake, and while they're still potent going forward, Roma are not the crazy funsters that they were under Zdenek Zeman: only two of their last six Serie A games went over 2.5. Unders can be backed at 2.04 and we should take advantage, as Lazio will be set up to contain by Vladimir Petkovic, and when they're on their game, they're very good at that.

There have been eight red cards in the last five Rome derbies, and that's a bet which is sure to attract some, but there's no value at the likely prices, and so I'll steer clear, and hope that referee Daniele Orsato handles his first Rome derby well, and that the game doesn't run out of control. There's no specific reason, away from the statistics, to think that it might.

It's going to be a tight game, and I think that the markets that I've highlighted are skewed too far in Roma's favour, AND in favour of an open entertaining game. There are good reasons to believe that Lazio have a bigger chance that the prices suggest, and that the game will be tight.

Roma are yet to win a derby under their relatively new American owners, and there's no strong reason to believe that will change on Sunday. I'm with Lazio in a close one, particularly at the prices.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.04