The Goalscorer Gamble: Hernandez will continue Chelsea run

30Mar 2013

Betfair

After a successful midweek column, Dan Fitch is looking to continue his winning streak and fancies Javier Hernandez to be the fastest off the mark against Chelsea.

This tipping lark is a tougher job than you'd think. Have a couple of bad weeks and the pressure builds. Random people you don't know find it socially acceptable to abuse you on Twitter. As you go to sleep at night, it's the refrain of 'sacked in the morning' that plays on a six-second loop in your head.

So after a couple of barren weeks the success of my last Goalscorer Gamble column was a welcome relief. Pedro scored first for Spain at predicted at odds of 9.0 , before Israel's Eden Ben Besat scored the last goal against Northern Ireland at 7.2.

A £10 double on that pair would have returned you the princely sum of 638 of your English pound notes. Thus we waltz into this week's column with a whistle at our lips, a swagger in our stride and our hat sitting firmly on the side of our head.

Let's start in the familiar old Premier League. On Sunday, Aston Villa play host to Liverpool and it's Christian Benteke that we're interested in.

The Belgian has scored 17 goals this season, including eight in his last 10 Premier League starts. At such a scoring rate, odds of 2.9 for Benteke to find the net are too high against a Liverpool side that concede a lot of goals away from home.

Monday night sees the FA Cup quarter-final replay between Chelsea and Manchester United. With both sides playing today it's a little hard to predict the teams, but I think it's a fair shout that Javier Hernandez will start for United.

The Mexican has scored in all three of his appearances against Chelsea this season and has scored fours goals in five FA Cup games. When the market gains more liquidity, we're likely to see odds of around 7.5 on Hernandez to open the scoring, which we'll snap up.

Next we're off to Italy to focus on a Napoli side that are currently second in Serie A. Their results in recent weeks have been poor, with a run of seven games without a win until the 3-2 victory over Atlanta in the last round of fixtures.

Edison Cavani scored twice in that match to get back among the goals, in a season in which he's hit 29 goals in 35 games. Let's back him to add to his tally at likely odds of 2.0 to score at any time.

From Italy we pop over to Spain and a game that you can watch tonight via the technical wizardry that is known as Betfair Live Video. The mid-table clash between Levante and Sevilla, sees two teams meet that are separated by just one point and a single position in the league.

There might not be much between the two teams, but when it comes to goalscorers there is one man who stands out. Alvaro Negredo has scored 20 goals in 30 games this season and is a rich vein of form, with five goals in his last three La Liga outings.

This should be a tight game that is decided by a single goal, so let's back Negredo to score the last goal at 5.0, as he has done in two of his last three games.

Finally we are back in England for a Championship match this evening, in which second placed Hull City have the chance to put daylight between themselves and the chasing pack.

Both Watford and Crystal Palace suffered disappointing results yesterday and Hull will be looking to capitalise when they travel to struggling Huddersfield.

The player we're looking at is the flamboyant attacker George Boyd. On-loan from Peterborough, Boyd has made an instant impact at Hull, scoring three goals in five games. I like the odds of 3.3 for him to find the net again tonight.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Hernandez to score first at 7.5

Back Benteke to score at 2.9

Back Cavani to score at 2.0

Back Negredo to score last at 5.0

Back Boyd to score at 3.3