The Goalscorer Gamble: Berbatov to ruin relegated Reading

4May 2013

Betfair

Dan Fitch likes the odds of Dimitar Berbatov inflicting further punishment on Reading's frazzled defence.

The gravy train has come to a halt in recent weeks as a result of signal failures, but last weekend the engines started up again, when three of my goalscorer picks dutifully found the net.

Gareth Bale at 2.34, Robin van Persie at 2.35 and Jonas Oliveira at 3.4, all hit the proverbial onion bag. A £10 treble on that little lot would have have won you the princely sum of £186.97. That's almost enough to buy a real ticket for a train journey.

As we attempt to further stoke the fires of your bank account, we start in the Premier League, where cuddly Fulham meet relegated Reading. The price of 2.4 for Dimitar Berbatov to score looks serious overpriced. He has a great record against Reading, with five goals in four Premier League games against the Royals.

Reading have conceded ten goals in their last four away games and that was when they had a reason to not let any in. It all adds up to the Bulgarian getting the column off to a winning start.

Next to Scotland, where Celtic continue to mourn the loss of their tempestuous relationship with Rangers. On Sunday they meet Ross County in another meaningless encounter which they will hope to fill the void, but is instead likely to merely leave them feeling grubby in the morning.

A recurring theme for this column has been midfield players that are priced on their position, rather than their current form in front of goal. Kris Commons is a great example. He has enjoyed his most fruitful season to date, scoring 18 goals thus far.

Six of those goals have come in the last six games, with Commons scoring the opening goal on four occasions. The former Derby winger is priced at 6.2 to score first, which should rise nearer to 7.0 as we approach kick off.

We stay in Scotland for the later match between Kilmarnock and Hibernian. It's our old friend Leigh Griffiths that we're interested in.

Last time I tipped him as a first goalscorer, Griffiths smashed in a free-kick that despite dropping several miles over the line, was ruled out by a referee, either suffering from poor eyesight, or a lifetime supporting Hearts.

Griffiths has scored 22 goals in the Scottish Premier League this season and scored twice last week in Hibs' 3-3 draw with St Mirren.

Kilmarnock have a pretty tight defence, but Hibernian beat them 4-2 when they last met at Rugby Park, with the greedy Griffiths helping himself to a tasty hat-trick. As such, the likely odds of 2.5 for Griffiths to score at any time look over generous.

Another striker bang in form is Atletico Madrid's Radamel Falcao. The deadly Colombian has 32 goals this season and has gradually rediscovered his lethal touch after an injury.

Falcao has scored five goals in his last five games and should continue that run against Deportivo. They are embroiled in a relegation battle and are only outside the bottom three by virtue of goal difference.

That's perhaps somewhat surprising when you consider that Deportivo have conceded a whopping 65 goals - only bottom placed Real Mallorca have let in more. The odds of 4.5 on Falcao scoring the last goal might seem slim, but that's value when you consider the circumstances.

Finally we return to the Premier League for the Merseyside derby. With Luis Suarez suspended, it is Daniel Sturridge who is left to provide the teeth in Liverpool's attack.

Sturridge has scored seven goals in 11 games for LIverpool. His progress has been somewhat stilted, due to niggling injury problems and the form of Suarez, but this is a great opportunity for him to prove what he can do.

Snap up the odds of 2.3 on Sturridge to score at any time.

Recommended Bets: Best Bet:

Back Berbatov to score at 2.4

Back Commons to score first at 7.0

Back Griffiths to score at 2.5

Back Falcao to score last at 4.5

Back Sturridge to score at 2.3