The Goalscorer Gamble: Berbatov to punish tired Newcastle legs

6Apr 2013

Betfair

Dan Fitch is tipping the in-form Dimitar Berbatov to be the quickest out of the blocks when Fulham face a tired Newcastle side.

Last week's Goalscorer Gamble tips once again culminated in a trip to the corner shop and the purchase of their finest sparkling win.

Sadly the first and last goalscorer tips failed to come in, but all three of our anytime selections delivered. Christian Benteke, Edison Cavani and George Boyd all delivered and a £10 treble on those three would have returned £191 and 40 pence, which can buy a rather good vintage of Lambrini.

In fact, I'm so enamoured with that goalscoring trio right now, that I'm going to back one of them again.

Benteke's Aston Villa are desperate for points as they look to escape the relegation zone and face a Stoke side that seem to hold the mistaken belief that the season ended around the same time that they finished their Christmas dinners.

Back in the good old days of 2012, people started idly debating whether Stoke's defence was one of the best in Europe. That illusion was somewhat shattered when they then conceded 13 goals in four games.

From Boxing Day onwards, Stoke have kept just one clean sheet in 13 games. That sounds like easy pickings for Benteke, who has scored 9 goals in his last 11 Premier League outings. I like the odds of 3.2 for the Villa penalty taker to add to his tally.

We stick to the Premier League to examine another defence with more holes in it than Kim Jong-un's claims that he can nuke the Yanks. Newcastle United last kept a clean sheet back in January and even that was against a Norwich side who boast an attack that is even less threatening that the North Koreans.

On Sunday they face in-form Fulham, who are unbeaten in their last five. Newcastle are likely to be fatigued after their Europa League exploits on Thursday night and will have their work cut out handling Dimitar Berbatov.

The Bulgarian has scored five goals in his last four games and can be backed at tasty odds of 7.8 to grab the first goal.

Last week I tipped Sevilla's Alvaro Negredo to score the last goal for Sevilla away at Levante, only for the home side to pull off a 1-0 win.

This week Sevilla have a home game against an Athletic Bilbao side who have conceded the third highest amount of goals in the Spanish league.

Sevilla have been in great form at home lately, scoring 22 goals in their last seven games at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Prior to his blank against Levante, Negredo had scored five goals in three matches and looks a safe bet at odds of 1.9.

Next we go to Italy and Monday Rome derby. The player we're interested in is Roma's Argentine attacker Erik Lamela, who has scored 13 goals in 24 games this season.

Lamela has scored two of those goals in his last three games and with Lazio having failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches. This includes a 2-0 Thursday night Europa League defeat, so let's back Lamela to score the last goal against the tired Lazio defence at likely odds of 7.0.

Finally we turn our attention towards the Johnstone's Paint Trophy final between League 1 side Crewe Alexandra and League 2 outfit Southend United.

I'm very tempted to tip the superbly named Britt Assombalonga of Southend, but my head has to rule my heart and go with the top scorer of the League 1 team.

That man is Mathias Pogba, who has scored 16 goals for Crewe this season. The Guinean international is likely to be priced at around 2.8 to score at any time and is our final pick of the weekend's fixtures.

Recommended Bets:

Best Bet: Back Benteke to score at 3.2

Back Berbatov to score first at 7.8

Back Negredo to score at 1.9

Back Lamela to score last at 7.0

Back Pogba to score at 2.8