The Goalscorer Gamble: Back Ronaldo to hurt Barca again

2Mar 2013

Betfair

Dan Fitch is in hot tipping form and is backing the even more prolific Cristiano Ronaldo to continue his scoring streak against Barcelona.

Last time out this column correctly predicted three from five selections, for the second successive week. This included a best bet tip of Gareth Bale to score the last goal for Spurs against West Ham at 5.5.

Now you may say that Bale took his sweet time to bang in that vital goal, but when it comes to last goalscorer bets, strikes in the 90th minute and beyond are a thing of beauty.

So what have we got in store for you this week? We'll start with the Premier League fixture between Wigan and Liverpool this evening.

Last week Wigan kept a clean sheet away at Reading, but it should be noted that they were playing against 10 men for the majority of the second half, following Pavel Pogrebnyak's sending off.

It was only Wigan's second clean sheet in their last 17 games and I wouldn't be betting on a third coming in their match against Liverpool, who have found the net in 13 of their last 14 Premier League outings.

So who to back for Liverpool? Daniel Sturridge faces a late fitness test, which could mean that Luis Suarez adopts a more central role if the England striker misses out. Even if he does line up alongside Sturridge, the Uruguayan is still a goal threat and we'll be backing him at 2.18 to score at any time.

For our first goalscorer bet this week we turn to El Clasico, where we can find some unusually generous odds on Cristiano Ronaldo to score. The Portuguese forward is priced at 2.0 to score at any time against Barcelona, when be very often trades around the 1.4 mark to find the net in La Liga matches.

Obviously Barcelona are considered stiffer opposition, but Ronaldo has found no problems in scoring against Real's bitter rivals in recent games. The 28-year old has scored eight goals in his last seven matches against Barca.

This includes two goals in midweek (including the first goal), as Real dumped Barcelona out of the Copa Del Rey. Ronaldo has scored 12 El Clasico goals in total and we're backing him to bag the first goal at odds of 5.3.

I haven't had much luck when it comes to predicting AC Milan's goalscorers. Whenever I've tipped Stephan El Shaarawy, goofy old Mario Balotelli scores instead. When I finally switched and backed Balotelli to score the first goal against Inter, El Shaarawy decides to get in on the gag and opens the scoring.

Rather than learn from my mistakes, I'm going to stick with Balotelli at odds of 2.2 to score at any time. Milan face a Lazio side that have been in pretty poor form in recent weeks and I fancy that the home side will win comfortably at the San Siro.

For our last goalscorer bet we return to Spain. Since returning to the Atletico Madrid team following injury, Radamel Falcao has slowly regained his form and has now scored in each of his last four games. He's 2.15 to score in his fifth game.

Tomorrow night Atletico face a tricky away game against Malaga, who currently sit fourth. The home side have a tight defence, so I'm backing that it will be a low scoring game in which any Falcao goal may prove decisive. The Colombian is 4.6 to score the last goal.

Finally we return to the Premier League and tomorrow's North London derby between Spurs and Arsenal. Unsurprisingly it's Gareth Bale that's grabbed my attention. In terms of goals he is the most in-form player in Europe right now, with 8 strikes in his last 6 games.

That makes the 2.44 on offer for Bale to score at any time to look over generous. Odds are increased when a goalscorer faces a tougher team, but Arsenal have a somewhat generous defence and this fixture normally provides plenty of goals.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Cristiano Ronaldo to score first at 5.3

Back Luis Suarez to score at 2.18

Back Mario Balotelli to score at 2.2

Back Radamel Falcao to score last at 4.6

Back Gareth Bale to score at 2.44