The Goalscorer Gamble: Back Bale to win battle with Suarez

9Mar 2013

Betfair

It's a battle of the Premier League sharp-shooters as Liverpool's Luis Suarez takes on Tottenham's Gareth Bale. Dan Fitch thinks that the Welshman represents the best value bet.

One of the frustrations with betting on goalscorer markets is when some pesky manager spoils your plans by leaving your pick on the bench.

That's exactly what Jose Mourinho did when he rested Cristiano Ronaldo for El Clasico (who rests players against Barcelona?), before Real Madrid's Champions League tie with Manchester United.

The first goal was scored before Ronaldo got on the pitch, making my bet on him to net first null and void. Of the other four selections, two came in, both at a shade over evens. So we go into this weekend having not made a profit last week. Let's change that.

We'll start with the team that prompted Ronaldo being rested - Manchester United. All eyes will be on Wayne Rooney when they meet Chelsea on Sunday, but not mine.

No, I'm far more interested in Javier Hernandez. The Mexican has started in all four of United's FA Cup games this season (they've played one replay) and has scored three goals in the process.

United haven't played anyone quite as good as Chelsea in the cup this season, so you might think that Rooney will be paired with Robin van Persie. I'm not so sure and expect Hernandez to start with Rooney behind him. After all, Chicarito has already scored twice in two games against Chelsea this season. Back Hernadez to score at 2.42.

Next we pop north of the border to take a look at the Edinburgh derby between Hibernian and Hearts, which takes place on Sunday. Hearts are struggling at the foot of the Scottish Premier League right now and have only won once on their travels this season.

All of which should be music to the ears of the home side Hibs and in particular their prolific striker Leigh Griffiths. On-loan from Wolves, the Scottish international has scored 19 league goals this season and is in a rich vein of form.

Griffiths was named as the SPL player of the month for February, as he scored in four successive league games. This form has continued into March, with Griffiths netting a hat-trick against Kilmarnock in the Scottish Cup last week. Let's back Griffiths to score the first goal at odds of 4.6.

Next we take a look at the English Premier League's two most in-form players, as Liverpool and Luis Suarez play host to Spurs and Gareth Bale.

Suarez is at 2.26 to find the net, with Bale at 2.72. Why the difference in price? Bale has scored ten goals from his last eight games, compared to eight in eight by Suarez.

Liverpool might be at home, but I don't think that will prove to be a huge factor. Bale has scored four goals in the four away games since switching to a central role. Spurs are unbeaten in their last six Premier League away games, while Liverpool have failed to beat any of the current top five this season.

It all adds up to a pretty convincing case that Bale is the better value here, so we'll snap up the bigger price.

Last week I tipped Radamel Falcao to score the last goal for Atletico Madrid, only for Malaga to force a 0-0 draw. This broke a run of scoring in four successive games, which could spell bad news for Atletico's opponents Real Sociedad.

We'll keep faith in Falcao and back him again to score the last goal, at odds of 3.4.

Finally we focus on Monday night's Championship clash between Burnley and Hull. Charlie Austin has scored 26 goals in 34 games for Burnley this season. When the market gains full liquidity, we can expect Austin to be priced at around 2.2 to score at any time.

That looks like good value to me. Hull are third in the league, but have lost their last three away games, conceding nine goals in the process (albeit to better teams than Burnley). Back Austin to add to his tally.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Gareth Bale to score at 2.72

Back Javier Hernandez to score at 2.42

Back Leigh Griffiths to score first at 4.6

Back Radamel Falcao to score last at 3.4

Back Charlie Austin to score at 2.2