The Big Wednesday Multiple: The lower leagues edition

20Mar 2013

Betfair

It's Wednesday, so that means it's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Tubize (HOME) @ 2.0 (1/1)

We begin in Belgium for a second division clash between Tubize and Vise. The home side are even money for this one and that screams value to me given their recent record on their own patch.

Tubize are 11th in the league after picking up 34 points from their opening 25 fixtures. They are safe from relegation but also have no chance of promotion so the rest of their campaign will likely be geared at bettering last year's eighth place finish.

Felice Mazzu's side have hit a bad run of form recently though - one draw and three defeats in their last four - however it should be noted that three of those matches were on the road. They lost their last game at home to Westerlo but that can be excused as they are challenging for the title. Prior to that it was just one defeat all season, with three victories in four.

Vise are 14th in the league but they are only three points clear of the relegation play-off place. This must be considered a huge disappointment given that they finished fifth last term.

Since the middle of November they have won just two of their dozen matches and lost seven. Away from home it's three defeats on the bounce and six in their last eight.

Bet 2: Solihull (AWAY) @ 2.7 (17/10)

Our quest for an away win this week takes us to England as Corby Town play host to Solihull Moors. Solilhull haven't had too many away wins this term but their opponents are pretty poor at home and I think that their price of 2.7 (17/10) has to be snapped up.

Corby are down in 19th place in the Conference North, just one place and four points clear of the relegation zone. Three defeats in four hasn't helped their cause and the two teams either side of them have a game in hand.

Chris Plummer can't take too much confidence into tonight's match at Steel Park as his side have won just one of their last six there, losing four times. Aside from the1-0 win over Stalybridge Celtic, they have been shipping goals at an alarming rate - 14 conceded in their other five recent matches.

Solihull are in 12th place but I think they're too far back to challenge for promotion this year. After an impressive run from mid-October to the end of January things have tailed off a bit lately as they've lost seven of their last 10.

Two of those victories were on their travels though and they've lost just seven of their 17 fixtures away from home this season. The Moors will also take a boost from the fact that they've won all three of their visits to Steel Park.

Bet 3: Varese v Novara (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.2 (6/5)

Surprisingly we find ourselves in Italy for our goal fest this week but I have every faith in Varese and Novara delivering the goods, especially at a huge price of 2.2 (6/5).

Varese are currently in fifth spot in Serie B which coincidently is where they finished last season. Obviously they will be hoping for better luck in the play-offs this time around, and that's something that they'll need as they are too far behind the top two to challenge for automatic promotion.

As far as the goals go, only 14 of their 31 matches have gone over 2.5, although their games are averaging 2.61 goals each time. Interestingly though, five of their last seven at home have had three or more, and their last two results at Stadio Franco Ossola were 3-2 and 3-4.

Novara are 10th in the league and that must be considered a disappointment given that they were relegated from Serie A last season. Nevertheless, a win from their game in hand tonight would see them move seventh, just one place and three points from the play-offs.

Of their 31 fixtures to date, 11 have gone over 2.5 goals, but they haven't failed to find the target in any of their last five on the road, including scoring six at Spezia and four at Juve Stabia.

The goals have been flowing for both of these two clubs recently and three points this evening could prove crucial come the end of the campaign so I'm hoping for a bit of an end to end thriller.

Bet 4: RBD Borinage v FC Brussels (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.75 (3/4)

We finish where we started as RBD Borinage take on FC Brussels in the Belgian Second Division. This match pits seventh v 15th and given the inconsistent results of the pair, the only thing I'm confident of is a lack of goals.

RBD Borinage are safely secured in mid-table with not much to play for. They may have been able to challenge for promotion if they'd have started the season better - especially at home - but it wasn't to be and they are destined for another year in the second tier.

So far this season 15 of their 25 fixtures have gone under 2.5 goals, nine of which came at home. They have only played 11 times in front of their own fans so that means that over 80% have had two goals or less. Geoffrey Brion's team have kept two clean sheets in a row in Boussu and they have only conceded more than one goal on one occasion.

FC Brussels are down in 15th place and the main reason for that is that they don't score enough goals. With only 23 scored this term they have the second lowest total in the division and they are going to need to improve upon that to avoid the drop.

They won their last away match 3-1 but that's the exception and not the rule as before that their previous six on the road had all gone under 2.5 goals. Their matches are averaging 2.46 goals per 90 minutes and 14 of their 26 have had two or less.

Recommended Multiple

Back Tubize @ 2.0 (1/1); Back Solihull @ 2.7 (17/10); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Varese v Novara @ 2.2 (6/5); Back Under 2.5 Goals in RBD Borinage v FC Brussels @ 1.75 (3/4); The Multiple pays approximately 20.79 (20/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.