The Big Wednesday Multiple: The European Edition

27Feb 2013

Betfair

Yes, that's right, it's time for the big Wednesday multiple. Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Read on for his selections...

Bet 1: Sevilla (HOME) @ 2.4 (7/5) - Live on Sky Sports Two at 21:00

We begin in Spain for the second leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid. Atletico lead 2-1 but I fancy Sevilla to turn that around by winning tonight's match.

Sevilla have been revitalised since former Valencia boss Unai Emery was installed as manager in the middle of Janaury. The Red and Whites had lost four from five before he arrived, but since that point they have only lost three from nine, and they were all away to the three Spanish big boys.

At Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla have won four from four, scoring 12 goals and conceding just two. Clearly they have a big task on their hands as Atletico Madrid are having a fine season but they possess plenty of quality themselves and they did lead 1-0 at half time at the Nou Camp on Saturday.

Atletico Madrid have had a wonderful campaign and they still must be pinching themselves that they're above bitter rivals, Real. Their success has been largely down to their home form though as things have tailed off away recently.

Diego Simeone's men have won just three of their last 13 on the road and despite having the world's most sought after striker in Falcao, they only scored nine goals in that period, and three of those came in one match.

The Mattress Makers suffered cup agony in the Europa League last week as they went out to Rubin Kazan after two legs and while they still might get through on away goals or after extra time, I'm confident that Sevilla will make a mockery of their odds-against quote this evening.

Bet 2: Chelsea (AWAY) @ 1.4 (2/5)

We head to England now as Chelsea travel north to Middlesbrough for a Fifth Round FA Cup tie. The Blues have been in and out of late but I can't see the out of form Boro causing them too many problems tonight.

Middlesbrough were flying earlier in the season and they were challenging for automatic promotion. A terrible run of results has seen them drop out of the play-off places now though and they even lost to Millwall at home at the weekend.

The problem has been that the goals have dried up while the defence has carried on being a touch leaky. Tony Mowbray's side have scored just seven in their last nine fixtures and two of those came against Aldershot Town.

Chelsea lost 2-0 at Man City on Sunday but it could have been different if Frank Lampard had converted from the spot just after the break. They were also fortunate to get a draw against Sparta Prague last Thursday and avoid extra time. Nevertheless, The Blues had won three on the spin before that and they are still one of the best teams in the country.

Rafa Benitez has had to play down reports of a bust up with club captain John Terry, but with the league title out of reach, it is likely that the manager and players will pull together to have a shot of winning the FA Cup. Juan Mata and Eden Hazard should both play and they are key to the quality of football that Chelsea play, especially in Mata's case.

They are a short price for an away game but Boro are on the slide right now and there won't be a better time to go to the Riverside.

Bet 3: Bayern Munich v Dortmund (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.66 (4/6) - Live on ESPN at 19:30

It's over to Germany now in our search for goals and matches don't come much tastier than Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund. Tonight's game is a quarter-final tie in the DFB Pokal - the German Cup to you and me - and the goals should flow.

Bayern are running away with the Bundesliga and are the current favourites to lift the Champions League. They haven't lost a game since October; winning 17 and drawing four after the 2-1 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen.

The attackers have been performing, Mario Mandžukić, in particular, and the defence has been watertight. It is likely that departing manager Jupp Heynckes will want to go out with a bang so with the treble still on, we won't see The FCB playing with a weakened line up tonight.

Dortmund are second in the Bundesliga but they will be disappointed with how far they are behind the leaders in their bid to retain their title. Nevertheless, Jürgen Klopp's men are still in the Champions League and if they can somehow negotiate a passage past Munich at the Allianz-Arena this evening, silverware will be well and truly on the cards.

BVB have plenty of goals in them - 14 in their last five on the road - and they will take heart from the fact that Bayern have conceded in their last two matches, and that they haven't failed to score against them since 2008 - a run of 12 games.

Bet 4: Bari v Verona (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.61 (8/13)

We conclude in Italy where Bari take on Verona in Serie B, a match that will hopefully produce few goals.

Bari are down in 20th place in the league and in danger of being relegated after going six without victory. Tonight is their game in hand over their nearest rivals and a win would see them move up to 19th, however it will be no easy task against Verona.

It's goals that we're interested in though and they are thin on the ground for Vincenzo Torrente's side at the moment. They've netted just five times from their last nine fixtures, with seven of those going under 2.5 goals. Their last four at home have all gone under as well and the Bari faithful haven't seen their team score at Stadio San Nicola for 270 minutes.

Verona are up in third place in the league and pushing for automatic promotion. The key to their success has been at the back as with just 21 conceded this term, they have the best defensive record in the entire division.

Andrea Mandorlini's men have seen nine of their last 10 matches have two goals or less, with their last half dozen away from home all going under 2.5. They generally don't score more than one but then they don't often concede more than one either.

This looks like a nailed on unders match to me and the 1.61 (8/13) price is very backable.

Recommended Multiple

Back Sevilla @ 2.4 (7/5); Back Chelsea @ 1.4 (2/5); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Bayern Munich v Dortmund @ 1.66 (4/6); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Bari v Verona @ 1.61 (8/13); The Multiple pays approximately 8.98 (8/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.