The Big Wednesday Multiple: South American Edition

5Jun 2013

Betfair

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Uruguay (HOME) @ 2.5 (6/4)

We kick off proceedings in Montevideo as Uruguay look to continue their formidable home record in a friendly against a relatively inexperienced France side.

The Uruguayans have been out of sorts of late as they've won just two of their 13 fixtures in 2013. Three defeats in their last four World Cup qualifying games has left them with work to do to make Rio next summer and head coach Oscar Tabarez will be praying his team can get back on track before their trip to Venezuela next Wednesday.

In fairness to the Fifa ranked 17th side, they haven't had much opportunity to play on home soil of late and that is where they excel. The dinosaurs are unbeaten in Uruguay since 2009 and with Luis Suarez, Edison Cavani and Diego Forlan at their disposal, they have more than enough firepower to beat any team in the world.

France are in the middle of a re-building phase after the likes of Thierry Henry and Zinedine Zidane retired from international duty. Didier Deshcamps took over as manager after the European Championships last year and while he's enjoyed some good results, they lost to Germany and Spain in Paris recently.

Deschamps has taken an inexperienced young squad with him to South America for the double header against Uruguay and Brazil and given that he's stated that the latter is the more important match, the not quite fully fit Karim Benzema could be saved for Sunday.

Bet 2: Botafogo RJ (AWAY) @ 2.15 (23/20)

We head slightly north now for domestic action in the Brazilian Campeonato as Botafogo RJ look like a decent price to pick up an away victory at Bahia.

Bahia have begun their campaign with a win, a draw and a defeat from their opening three fixtures. Last year's 15th placed finishers drew their only home match 0-0 against Coritiba but then pulled off a shock 2-1 victory at Internacional on Sunday.

New man in charge Joel Santana will be hoping his side can build on that performance but I have my doubts as they lack quality and generally come unstuck when up against the better teams in Brazil.

Botafogo are flying at the moment as not only have they picked up seven points from a possible nine in Serie A, they warmed up for the league by winning the Carioca One. They completely dominated that tournament and look to have the ability to challenge for the Campeonato.

The Great Fire are certainly white-hot right now and odds-against for them to win at Bahia looks too good an opportunity to turn down.

Bet 3: Sao Paulo v Goias (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.75 (3/4)

Last week I recommended a bet of under 2.5 goals for a Sao Paulo match. While the scores were level at 0-0 at the hour mark, it inexplicably finished 5-1 to the hosts. I won't be making the same mistake again this time and I think we should get at least three goals as Sao Paulo take on Goias in Brazil.

Sao Paulo are riding high at the top of Serie A after picking up seven points from their opening three matches. While they were knocked out in the last 16 of the Copa Libertadores at the hands of fellow Brazilians Atletico Mineiro, Ney Franco's men have put that behind them to beat Ponte Preta and Vasco da Gama.

In all fairness to my selection last week, games involving Sao Paulo aren't usually known to be high scoring. It just seems that they have become a bit more potent and opened up of late - especially at home - and with Luis Fabiano leading the line, I expect them to be able to put two or three past tonight's opponents.

Goias were promoted to this division after winning Serie B last term. They've not started life in the top flight too badly - securing a pair of draws following a 5-0 thrashing at Cruzeiro on the opening day. Those draws were at home though and I fear for them back on the road.

Enderson Moreira's side did at least manage to score plenty of goals away from home last season - albeit against poorer opposition - so I'm not without hope of them nicking a goal in this one, making over 2.5 goals most definitely the value bet.

Bet 4: Cruzeiro v Corinthians (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (8/11)

We stay in Brazil for another Serie A fixture as Cruzeiro and Corinthians will hopefully play out a low scoring match.

Cruzeiro have made a solid start to their campaign with four points from a possible nine. They thrashed Goias at home before drawing at Atletico PR, but then lost last time out at Botafogo. All three of those matches had three goals or more so it seems strange why I'm advocating under 2.5, but that is more to do with their opponents than Cruzeiro.

Corinthians are the master of a low scoring affair. Their last five results read; 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0, and if you look even further back, you will see that their scorelines are littered with similar.

Adenor Leonardo Bacchi, or Tite as he's better known, sets up his team to absorb pressure and then hit on the counter. They are very streetwise and hard to beat - something which Chelsea found out to their cost in the Fifa Club World Cup back in December of last year.

If you need further convincing that under 2.5 goals is the way to go, then the last seven meetings between this pair have all had two goals or less, with five of them actually going under 1.5.

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