The Big Wednesday Multiple: Real to compound Dortmund's bad week

24Apr 2013

Betfair

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: St Etienne (HOME) @ 1.5 (1/2) - Live on ESPN at 17:30

Saint-Etienne are pushing hard for European football next season and despite plenty of recent draws, I think they will have too much quality for the struggling Ajaccio in France's Ligue One this evening.

Christophe Galtier has got his side in fifth place, two points behind Lille with a game in hand. If they win tonight, they will move into fourth and be within touching distance of Lyon in third. The top three all get Champions League football next season so there is huge incentive for them to pick up all three points - something which they've managed to achieve in four of their last five at home.

Their only recent blip at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard came against PSG, and even then they didn't lose, coming back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2. The Greens have a couple of suspensions and injuries to worry about but they should still have the beating of Ajaccio.

Ajaccio are 15th, just two points clear of the drop zone. This is their game in hand and as they would certainly take a point if offered, don't expect them to be too ambitious going forward. They've actually only lost one of their half dozen on the road - drawing the other five - but they too have a couple of players missing and that will hurt them.

Bet 2: Real Madrid (AWAY) @ 2.7 (17/10) - Live on Sky Sports Two at 19:45

It's the Champions League now as Real Madrid look a tasty price to get revenge on Borussia Dortmund.

These two teams were paired in the same group earlier on in the tournament and it was the Germans who got the better of those meetings. They won 2-1 at Westfalenstadion and held Madrid to a 2-2 draw at the Bernabeu.

Jose Mourinho's men are in much better form now though and the players have seemingly united together for a common goal - Champions League glory. Diego Lopez is doing well in goal after replacing Casillas and Cristiano Ronaldo is scoring for fun. They did lose at Galatasaray in the quarter-finals but I just think they were a touch complacent as they led 4-0 on aggregate at one stage.

Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund side scraped past Malaga in the last round and it took two injury time goals to save them. I very much doubt this Spanish team will be as accommodating and the Germans will have to play at their very best to get a result.

Their preparations were rocked by the news that Mario Götze will be joining rivals Bayern Munich in the summer and his head might not be in the game this evening. It all points to an away win to me, with the generous odds of 2.7 (17/10) just a bonus.

Bet 3: Grimsby v Newport County (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.95 (19/20) - Live on Premier Sports at 19:45

Our goal-fest of the week comes from the Conference National as Grimsby face Newport County for the first leg of their promotion play-off.

Grimsby finished in fourth place during the regular season, just two points behind tonight's opponents. They scored 70 goals and conceded 38 during their campaign for a match average of 2.35. The Mariners did score quite freely at home though - firing just four blanks and netting three or more on eight separate occasions.

Newport County's matches averaged 3.15 goals each time during their 46 league fixtures - the third highest total in the entire division. A total of 28 of them went over 2.5 goals, with three of their last four on the road doing so.

Ironically these two met on this ground on Saturday to complete the regular season and it was Grimsby who came out on top 3-0. I don't expect the same disparity tonight, but I do expect it to have three goals or more again.

Bet 4: Rennes v Troyes (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.85 (17/20)

Back over to France now as Rennes take on Troyes in what should be quite a low scoring affair.

Rennes have slumped to 10th in the table after a run that's seen them pick up just two points from a possible 24 in the league and get knocked out of the Coup de la Ligue by Saint-Etienne. They've scored just twice in 485 minutes of football and they are badly missing top scorer Romain Alessandrini who is injured.

Troyes are rock bottom of the division and while they beat Nancy in the cup last time out, their league form is pretty poor. No win in four has left them nine points from safety and even if they win tonight, they will remain at the foot of the table.

Their last two on the road have both gone under 2.5 goals and it's very rare that they score more than one away from home. With Rennes also struggling in front of goal, I just can't see this one being high scoring, and I expected unders to be a much shorter price.

Recommended Multiple

Back St Etienne @ 1.5 (1/2); Back Real Madrid @ 2.7 (17/10); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Grimsby v Newport County @ 1.95 (19/20); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Rennes v Troyes @ 1.85 (17/20); The Multiple pays approximately 14.61 (27/2)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.