The Big Wednesday Multiple: Premier League and a flit to Portugal

2Jan 2013

It's that time of the week for the big Wednesday multiple as Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Liverpool (HOME) @ 1.3 (3/10)

We go to Anfield for our home win tonight as Liverpool take on Sunderland in what should be a relatively straightforward victory for The Reds.

Liverpool put the disappointing Boxing Day defeat at Stoke behind them by thrashing a woeful QPR at Loftus Road on Sunday. Brendan Rodgers was absent with a virus but being three up after 28 minutes was just the medicine he needed.

Back in front of their own fans tonight, Liverpool will be confident of completing their fourth win from five fixtures at home. The sole blip came against an inspired Aston Villa side who caught them cold on the counter after the Merseysiders had bossed the opening half an hour.

Sunderland had gotten on to a bit of a roll with three wins in four but they came crashing back down to earth with a 1-2 home defeat against Spurs on Saturday. The Black Cats have struggled on the road in recent times and the victory at Southampton was only their second in 17 Premier League fixtures.

Bet 2: Braga (AWAY) @ 1.4 (2/5)

Over to Portugal now for a league cup tie between Naval and Braga. The Primeira Liga outfit are quite short odds, but they should have more than enough to see off the Liga de Honra side.

Braga are up in their usual position of third place in the league, nicely clear of fourth but some way adrift of Benfica and Porto at the top. Their Champions League campaign was somewhat disappointing, winning just one game and losing the other five, but they weren't thrashed in any of those matches and tonight's opposition is nowhere near that calibre.

Naval are only 11th in the second tier of Portuguese football and despite being on a 12 game unbeaten run, they haven't won too many of those and they certainly haven't faced a side of Braga's Ilk. They've drawn four of their last five at home and conceded three times in their last outing.

Braga drew their first match of this competition so they will be looking to put a win on the board to avoid having to play catch up. They may be a short price, but that doesn't mean to say it isn't value.

Bet 3: Newcastle v Everton (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.66 (4/6)

We move back to the Premier League now for our goal fest as Newcastle take on Everton at St James' Park.

The Geordies have slipped to 15th in the table after sliding to eight defeats in their last 10. In truth they haven't always played badly during that period, but they don't seem to be getting much rub of the green and they are leaking goals for fun.

The Magpies have shipped 11 goals in their last two, and while they were both away at Manchester United and Arsenal, it's still no excuse. With 37 conceded so far this term, they have a worse defensive record than QPR and it's only marginally better than the likes of Reading and Southampton.

Everton fell to a disappointing defeat to Chelsea at the weekend and despite the toughness of the fixture, they were at home and led early on. David Moyes can recall Marouane Fellaini after his three match ban and he should be a handful for Newcastle's creaking defence.

The Toffees' matches so far this season are averaging 2.9 goals each time, while Newcastle's are averaging a whopping 3.15. Three of Everton's last five on the road have gone over 2.5, as have three of The Geordie's last four at home. It all points to goals from where I'm sitting and 1.66 (4/6) looks like a steal.

Bet 4: Chelsea v QPR (Under 2.5 goals) @ 2.7 (17/10)

Chelsea take on QPR tonight in what many expect to be a comfortable home win. While I don't doubt that The Blues will take all three points, I can't see it being a rout.

Rafa Benitez is slowly winning over the Chelsea fans after he has led the side to four consecutive victories in all competitions. Last time they lined up at Stamford Bridge, they put eight past an inexperienced Villa team, but before that they'd scored just once in their previous three at home.

Five of their nine Premier League home fixtures have had two goals or less so far this term and they've kept five clean sheets. David Luiz's move to midfield has not only strengthened the middle of the park, some would argue it's strengthened the defence as well.

QPR need to pick themselves up from the 3-0 defeat to Liverpool on Sunday but Harry Redknapp has been round the block enough times to know that anything is possible in this league. They are yet to win on the road this year, but they've managed to keep it relatively tight, with four of their last six going under 2.5 goals.

Rangers will be fighting hard in this London derby, but I can't see them scoring and I expect Chelsea will nick one or two. Under 2.5 goals is a cracking price here at 2.7 (17/10) and it boosts the overall odds of our multiple quite nicely.

Recommended Multiple

Back Liverpool @ 1.3 (3/10); Back Braga @ 1.4 (2/5); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Newcastle v Everton @ 1.66 (4/6); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Chelsea v QPR @ 2.7 (17/10) ; The Multiple pays approximately 8.19 (7/1)