The Big Wednesday Multiple: Nigeria to pick up win in Namibia

12Jun 2013

Betfair

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Guarani (HOME) @ 1.5 (1/2)

Our quest for a home win takes us to Paraguay as third placed Guarani look good for the three points against the second from bottom Rubio Nu in the Primera Division.

Club Guarani have the chance to leapfrog Libertad and move into second place if they win their game in hand tonight. While they'd still be 13 points adrift of the leaders, second place would be an improvement on last season's third.

Diego Alonso's men are unbeaten in eight - winning five and drawing three - and they hammered Sol de America by four goals to nil in their own backyard last time out. In their last home game they beat Sportivo Luqueno 4-1 and they won this fixture on both occasions in 2012 - without conceding a goal.

Rubio Nu are struggling in 11th place and are only being kept off the foot of the table by goal difference. While they have drawn their last two, they were both at Estadio La Arboleda and on the road it's three defeats in five. It should be noted that they secured back to back away victories in May, however they came at struggling sides and Club Guarani will be a much sterner test.

Bet 2: Nigeria (AWAY) @ 1.53 (8/15)

It's World Cup qualification matters now as Nigeria travel to Namibia for a Group F clash in the second round of the African qualification section.

The Nigerians may well top the group with just two fixtures left to play but they will be keen to win tonight as it means they can then afford to draw their final match with the more accomplished Malawi. If they don't win then it's likely they'll need to beat them in the final game and that could prove tricky.

Stephen Keshi's side have the Confederations Cup coming up next Monday so I'm sure they'll want a boost ahead of that tournament. The Super Eagles are actually unbeaten in 11 matches away from home - winning four of the last five - and their last result was a 1-0 victory at Kenya in this qualification group.

Namibia know that anything other than a win will see them miss out on progressing to the final round of qualifying and that could mean they are left vulnerable at the back against a much more accomplished outfit as they go for broke.

The Brave Warriors have won just one of their previous seven and that was against the lowly ranked Zambia. That victory did come on home soil but prior to that they were defeated by both Malawi and Morocco, and held to goalless draws by Rwanda and Liberia.

Nigeria won the reverse fixture back in June 2012 and I expect more of the same one year on.

Bet 3: Olimpia v Carapegua (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.85 (17/20) - Betfair Live Video at 23:00 GMT

Back to Paraguay now as Olimpia take on Carapegua in what should prove to be somewhat of a goal-fest.

Olimpia have somehow made it through to the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores and they will face Colombia's Santa Fe over two legs in July. Their recent form hasn't been anywhere near as good in their domestic league though as two points from a possible 12 has seen them drop to sixth.

Ever Hugo Almeida's men have lost their last two at Estadio Manuel Ferreira and while they've been scoring plenty of goals there, their defence seems to have gone AWOL. Three of their last four results at home have been 2-3 defeats and while the latter two against the high flying Nacional Asuncion and Guarani can be excused, it's hard to defend the one versus Deportivo Capiata. They did manage one win during that period and even then they conceded three goals in a 4-3 victory.

Carapegua are rock bottom with 15 points from their 17 fixtures to date. They've lost four of their last five and haven't kept a clean sheet since the beginning of April. Of their eight matches on the road this term, four have gone over 2.5 goals - two of which went over 3.5, including a 4-3 loss to Nacional Asuncion.

This should prove to be a convincing home win for Olimpia but with their defence in disarray, the away side could well nick a goal or two.

Bet 4: Santos v Atletico MG (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.7 (7/10) - Betfair Live Video at 23:30 GMT

We finish in Brazil as Santos take on Atletico MG in the Campeonato. Both of these two have made slow starts to the campaign and nearly all the recent statistics on offer point to a low-scoring affair.

Santos started life without Neymar with a 3-1 defeat at Criciuma last week. They were thoroughly outplayed and their goal was a mere consolation during injury time. The 2011 Copa Libertadores Champions are rock bottom of Serie A with just two points from a possible 12. Muricy Ramalho was dismissed as manager a fortnight ago and it's hard to see where the next victory will come from.

As far as the goals go, Santos' last five at home in all competitions have gone under 2.5 and that includes a pair of 0-0's. With Neymar gone they just don't have the firepower any more so I'd expect a cautious approach as they try to arrest their recent slump.

Atletico Mineiro finished as runners up to Fluminense last term but they've made a slow start this time around. While it's possible to argue that their progression to the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores has been their priority, two defeats from their opening four league fixtures just isn't good enough.

Alexi Stival, or Cuca, as he's known has seen his side slip to back to back defeats on the road and they didn't even manage a goal at Vasco da Gama last time out. Their last four in all competitions have had three goals or less and they weren't exactly prolific away from Estádio Independência last year, despite their overall success.

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