The Big Wednesday Multiple: Greek tragedy for goal backers

9Jan 2013

After landing a 7/1 winner last week, Paul Robinson is back for another Big Wednesday Multiple as he picks a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Chelsea (HOME) @ 1.4 (2/5)

We kick off the week with a League Cup Semi Final first leg between Chelsea and Swansea and I can't see past a home win in this one.

Chelsea put their shock 1-0 defeat to QPR at Stamford Bridge behind them by overcoming a tricky FA Cup tie at Southampton in spectacular fashion. Rafa Benitez restored the big guns for that match and while he will likely make a couple of changes this evening, I'd expect him to put out a pretty strong side in order to gain an advantage to take to Wales.

Their form at The Bridge has been decent so far this term; played 15, won nine, drawn four and lost two in all competitions, and their last two victories were 6-1 and 8-0.

Swansea come into this one on the back of a five game unbeaten run, yet they've won just one of those fixtures and three of them were at home. Michael Laudrup has made The Swans more of an attacking force this year, largely thanks to the sublime, Michu, but they are much more vulnerable at the back.

Away from the Liberty Stadium they have won three of their last five, but they did face a vastly out of sorts Newcastle and Fulham during that period. The win at Arsenal was impressive however, but I just think that Chelsea will have too much for them tonight, and Laudrup will settle for a narrow defeat to take into the second leg.

Bet 2: Rio Ave (AWAY) @ 2.5 (6/4)

We go over to Portugal for our away win again this week as Rio Ave look to have too much for Maritimo in the Taca da Liga.

Rio Ave are having a fine campaign compared to last year's 14th placed finish and they find themselves up in fifth in the Primeira Liga. Nuno Espírito Santo is the new man in charge and he's guided them to this success, but while the league title clearly isn't a realistic aspiration, they could at least put a decent cup run together.

They may have had a small blip lately with three defeats in their last four, but the sides they've faced have all been in the top half of the table and they did beat Sporting Lisbon 3-0 at the end of December. Away from home they've won four of their last six and they've scored at least once in every single game this season.

Maritimo have struggled a bit this year and they're down in 10th place after far too many draws. They are without a win in four and have just a single point from their two games in this competition. Their home form isn't much better as they've won just one of their last 10 in the league, losing four of them.

This is far from a nailed on selection, but Rio Ave are a decent price and worth taking a chance on as it boosts the overall odds of our multiple greatly.

Bet 3: Chester v Oxford City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.44 (4/9)

Back to England for our goal fest now as top of the table, Chester, take on Oxford City in the Conference North.

Chester are a winning machine this season and are 10 points clear in first place after taking 65 points from a possible 72. Shockingly they drew 0-0 last time out, but that was away from home and they will be looking to get back on track tonight.

Neil Young's side have scored a whopping 65 goals this term and conceded 22. That gives their matches an average of 3.63 goals each time, with 18 of their 24 fixtures going over 2.5 goals.

Oxford City are ninth with 32 points but they are within touching distance of the play off places. No sane person would give them much chance tonight though, especially considering they are without a win in four on the road.

As far as the goals go, their matches are the second least high scoring in the division, however that's still an average of 2.73 each time, with 13 of their 22 having three goals or more.

It's a short price, but overs looks like a penalty kick here and should definitely be included in the multiple.

Bet 4: Panathinaikos v Platanias (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.57 (4/7)

When I write this article each week I always check to see if there are any games in Greece scheduled for my under 2.5 selection and thanks to the Greek Cup, we're in business.

Panathinaikos' financial woes have been well documented and it has impacted on their form on the pitch as they failed to make the Champions League group stage and have slipped to ninth in their domestic league. They had been going well at home though, but they lost their 19 match unbeaten record last time out by losing 2-1 to Levadiakos.

Somewhat surprisingly, their last trio at home have all gone over 2.5 goals, but before that, they're previous 10 had all had two or less, and they're league matches have averaged 2.13 goals home and away this term.

Platanias are 12th in the league with 17 points from their 16 fixtures to date. As this is the first leg of the tie, they will be looking to keep it tight and take something into the home match, however their form of five defeats in six on the road doesn't bode too well for them.

Goal wise, their games have averaged 2.06 in the league this year, with 10 of their 16 going under 2.5 and five of their last seven on the road have followed suit. This all points to a low scoring affair and should complete our multiple nicely.

Recommended Multiple

Back Chelsea @ 1.4 (2/5); Back Rio Ave @ 2.5 (6/4); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Chester v Oxford City @ 1.44 (4/9); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Panathinaikos v Platanias @ 1.57 (4/7); The Multiple pays approximately 7.94 (7/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.