The Big Wednesday Multiple: Goals at the San Siro

20Feb 2013

Betfair

After just missing out with three from four for the last two weeks, it's time again for the big Wednesday multiple as Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Leeds (HOME) @ 2.5 (6/4)

We kick off proceedings in the English Championship as Leeds look to get back to winning ways at Elland Road against Blackpool.

Leeds have dropped to 13th in the table after three defeats in five and the fans were calling for manager, Neil Warnock's head during the 4-0 FA Cup loss at Man City on Sunday. Their away form has been poor all year though and the reason why they're in touch with the play-off places is their home results.

A 0-1 defeat to league leaders Cardiff ended a run of six consecutive league victories, which included wins over Crystal Palace, Leicester and Middlesbrough, who are all chasing promotion. What makes that even more impressive is that they conceded just two goals during that period and kept four clean sheets.

Blackpool have another new manager - their third full-time one this season - as Paul Ince was appointed on Monday following the departure of Michael Appleton to Blackburn last month. After a bright start to their campaign, The Seasiders have dropped to 15th place having won just two of their last 10 fixtures.

Away from Bloomfield Road it's three defeats in four, two of which came against the struggling Ipswich and out of form Charlton. They did manage to beat Wolves, however they are in dire straits themselves.

Given the respective home and away form of each team, I'd make Leeds an even money shot, so at 2.5 (6/4), I have to include them for our home win of the week.

Bet 2: Coventry (AWAY) @ 2.6 (8/5)

Coventry travel to Crewe in the Johnstones Paint Trophy Area Final second leg tonight, looking to turn around a 3-0 deficit to qualify for Wembley. While they may not be able to manage it, I think they are a fantastic price to win the match.

The first leg between these two was quite one-sided in Coventry's favour, yet they managed to lose 3-0. The Sky Blues had 25 shots on target compared to Crewe's seven and enjoyed 57% of the possession. 31,000 fans had turned up at the Ricoh - more than treble the usual attendance - and it is possible that the players were a touch anxious in front of goal instead of being their usual composed selves.

Mark Robins has since left to join Huddersfield but Lee Carsley led them to a 2-0 away win at Bury on Saturday and that was their eighth victory from 10 on the road in League One.

Crewe are six points behind Coventry in the league, albeit they do have two games in hand. Steve Davis' side aren't exactly in great form though and if we exclude the first leg of this tie, Alexandra have won just one of their last half dozen, losing three of them.

The Railwaymen have been relatively strong at home, but they've slipped to two defeats in their last three and while they did beat Coventry on their own patch back in September, the Midlanders were in shocking form at the time. Add in the fact that Crewe can afford to lose by two goals and still progress, Coventry's price looks all the more tempting.

Bet 3: AC Milan v Barcelona (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.61 (8/13) - Sky Sports Two @ 19:45

Our goal fest of the week will hopefully come in Italy as AC Milan host Barcelona in the first leg of their last 16 Champions League tie.

AC Milan have gotten their act together since their dismal start to the campaign and while they aren't going to be winning the Serie A title this year, they are in a decent position to challenge the top three.

Massimiliano Allegri's side have been amongst the goals recently and although Mario Balotelli isn't eligible for this evening, Stephen El Shaarawy is and he has netted 18 times this season. Milan's last six at the San Siro have all gone over 2.5 goals and they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last five.

Barcelona need no introduction and neither do any of their players. Manager, Tito Vilanova possibly does though. He has taken the step up from assistant much better than I personally expected and he is on course to lead his team to a league and European double.

As far as the goals go, five of their last seven away from Camp Nou have gone over 2.5 and it's interesting to note that they haven't kept a clean sheet on the road since December 12th last year.

Milan will know that they need a positive result to take to Spain so I can't see them being overly cautious, especially as the game develops. Lionel Messi and co are a match for any defence in the world so we know Barcelona are capable of scoring three themselves if needs be. All signs point to overs and the 1.61 (8/13) has to be taken.

Bet 4: Huachipato v Caracas (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.7 (7/10)

We complete the multiple in Chile as Huachipato host Caracas in the Copa Libertadores. It's a late kick off but it might well be worth tuning in to if you are struggling to get to sleep.

Huachipato shocked Gremio in Brazil last week in their first ever game in this competition by beating them 2-1. It was only their second victory in six matches and they followed it up with a draw at Cobreloa in their domestic league.

While the goals have been flowing in their games on the road, at their home of Estadio CAP, eight of their last 10 have all had two or less. Jorge Pellicer's men kept five clean sheets in that period, while they failed to score themselves on four occasions.

Caracas began their Libertadores campaign with a 0-1 home defeat to Fluminense. The Venezuelans offered little attacking threat for the most part and in truth, the Brazilian outfit could have had more if Fred had been a bit more clinical in front of goal.

I expect them to try and keep it tight here for as long as possible and hit their opponents with a late suckerpunch. Five of their last six have gone under 2.5, with three going under 1.5 and two even going under 0.5.

It might not be an attractive game to watch, but it will hopefully complete a decently priced multiple.

Recommended Multiple

Back Leeds @ 2.5 (6/4); Back Coventry @ 2.6 (8/5); Back Over 2.5 Goals in AC Milan v Barcelona @ 1.61 (8/13); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Huachipato v Caracas @ 1.7 (7/10); The Multiple pays approximately 17.85 (17/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.