The Big Wednesday Multiple: Few goals in Belgian capital

27Mar 2013

Betfair

It's Wednesday, so that means it's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Gloucester (HOME) @ 1.61 (8/13)

We begin in England's Conference North as Gloucester City look a safe bet to complete a routine home win over Colwyn Bay. The Welsh team have lost their last three on the bounce and their away record is pretty poor.

Gloucester are 11th in the table and while they do have games in hand over most of their rivals, they are just a bit too far back to challenge for the play-off places. They lost their last match at Chester, but they are the runaway leaders so it can be excused, and prior to that The Tigers had thrashed both Hinckley and Droylsden.

Those two victories came at Whaddon Road and they ended a spell of just two points from 12 in front of their own fans. Aside from that little blip though, David Mehew's side have generally been solid at home with five wins from their previous seven.

Colwyn Bay are down in 20th place and find themselves in a relegation dog fight. They are five points adrift of safety, with their only saving grace being that they have three games in hand over the three clubs above them.

I wouldn't back them to get the necessary points to get out of trouble though as Frank Sinclair's men have won just two of their last 14 fixtures. Nine of those were defeats and they've kept just two clean sheets all season. Away from home they've lost eight of 15 this term and they were beaten by the lowly Histon last time.

Bet 2: Queen of the South (AWAY) @ 1.66 (4/6)

We go to Scotland now for a Second Division clash between Brechin and Queen of the South. The away side are the runaway leaders and I'm backing them to earn their 25th victory of the campaign tonight.

Queen of the South were relegated from the First Division last year but they have bounced back in style. With 76 points from 29 games they have a 24 point cushion over second place and will be back in the First Division when the new season starts in August.

Allan Johnston's side have won 11 of their 14 away games this term and they've scored an incredible 22 goals in their last seven on the road. Their only defeat so far came at second place Alloa back in December.

Brechin are having a decent year and they find themselves up in third place, just four points behind Alloa, but with five games in hand. They've rattled off 15 wins this season however they have lost seven times.

I can't really knock their form as it is very good - 11 undefeated - but their opponents tonight are a class above at this level and should have the necessary quality to grab all three points.

Bet 3: Dumbarton v Raith (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.7 (7/10)

We stay in Scotland for our goal fest as Dumbarton take on Raith in the First Division. Both of these teams have been amongst the goals lately and I can see that continuing this evening.

Dumbarton came up through the play-offs last season but they are in danger of going straight back down as they currently occupy ninth spot in the league. Their main problem has been conceding too many goals as they've shipped a total of 68, which is only one less than bottom club Airdrie - and they've played two more games.

The Sons have the highest goals per 90 minutes average in the league at 3.96 and 21 of their 27 fixtures have gone over 2.5. Four of their last five at The Bet Butler Stadium have had three or more and they've conceded 11 in their last quartet of matches there.

Raith's matches don't average quite so high as far as the goals go - 2.7 per 90 minutes - but they usually find the net on the road and haven't kept a clean sheet away from Stark's Park since November.

They are currently sixth in the table but only have a seven point cushion over today's opponents, meaning they can't rest easy just yet. Obviously a win would see them move 10 points clear and that could play into their thinking if the scores are tied going into the final portion of the game.

Bet 4: FC Brussels v Sint Niklaas (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.75 (3/4)

We finish in Belgium as FC Brussels and Sint Niklaas look set to play out a low scoring bore fest.

FC Brussels were one of the teams involved in my under 2.5 pick last week and they duly delivered, losing 2-0 at RBD Borinage. That makes it nine out of their last 11 with two goals or less and their 15th of the season.

This is actually a bit of a six pointer between these two clubs as they are tied on points, with Brussels only in the final relegation play-off place because of their inferior head to head record. I think it could be quite cagey as while a draw wouldn't be too bad for either side, a defeat would be quite damaging.

Sint Niklaas have struggled for goals on their travels recently. They have fired blanks in four of their last five and managed just a solitary strike last time against a team who went down to nine men.

I can see this game staying 0-0 for a long time and while we may see some late goals, I don't envisage there being three or more.

Recommended Multiple

Back Gloucester @ 1.61 (8/13); Back Queen of the South @ 1.66 (4/6); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Dumbarton v Raith @ 1.7 (7/10); Back Under 2.5 Goals in FC Brussels v Sint Niklaas @ 1.75 (3/4); The Multiple pays approximately 7.95 (7/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.