The Big Wednesday Multiple: Efficient Germans to see off plucky Malaga

3Apr 2013

Betfair

It's Wednesday, so that means it's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Caracas (HOME) @ 1.85 (17/20) - Betfair Live Video at 23:45

Our quest for a home win takes us to Venezuela as Caracas host Huachipato in the Copa Libertadores. Caracas won the reverse fixture 3-1 in Chile and I think they have more than enough quality to complete the double tonight.

Group eight of the Libertadores is delicately poised as any of the four sides can still go through with two rounds of fixtures remaining. The Brazilian teams have the advantage at the moment but they face each other this evening so the door will be left open for either Caracas or Huachipato to move into one of the qualifying spots.

Caracas lost two of their first three but they earned a huge win over Gremio last time and I've already touched on their dominating 3-1 victory in Chile, where they led 3-0 after an hour. Their domestic form has also been excellent - unbeaten in nine this season - winning their last two at Cocodrilos Sports Park.

Huachipato are currently bottom of the group after picking up just four points from a possible 12. They began their campaign with a shock victory at Gremio, but they have failed to build on that, losing their next two before picking up a creditable draw at Fluminense.

Jorge Pellicer's men are also in decent nick in their domestic league - three wins in their last four - but I just can't see them being able to take anything from this game as they were so easily beaten by their opponents in February.

Bet 2: Dortmund (AWAY) @ 2.3 (13/10) - Sky Sports Four at 19:45

It's the Champions League now as Borussia Dortmund travel to Spain for the first leg of their quarter-final tie with Malaga. The Germans are a very back-able price at 2.3 (13/10) and I'm keen to include them in the multiple as it boosts the overall odds significantly.

Dortmund have been one of the most impressive teams in this season's Champions League. After being drawn in the so called group of death with Real Madrid, Man City and Ajax, Jürgen Klopp's men put in some highly impressive performances to go through it unbeaten in first place. They then beat the dangerous Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 on aggregate in the last 16 and they would have been delighted at drawing Malaga in the quarters.

Robert Lewandowski has got 27 goals to his name in what could be his final season for BVB and he will be hungry to add to his tally of five in this competition. A player that has gone under the radar recently is Nuri Sahin. The Turkish midfielder failed to make an impact in his loan spell at Liverpool but the former Bundesliga player of the year has looked more like his old self back at Dortmund and he will be pushing for a starting place this evening.

Malaga overcame Porto 2-1 on aggregate in the last round thanks to a 2-0 victory at La Rosaleda Stadium in the second leg. It's hard to knock their form in this competition as they went through the group phase unbeaten - winning three and drawing three.

I just have my doubts about Manuel Pellegrini's side against the ruthless Germans. Their recent results in La Liga haven't exactly inspired confidence either as their victory at Rayo Vallecano at the weekend was their first in five domestically.

Bet 3: Arbroath v Stenhousemuir (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.7 (7/10)

Our search for goals takes us to Scotland for a Second Division match-up between fifth placed Arbroath and seventh placed Stenhousemuir.

Arbroath are locked in battle for the final remaining Promotion play-off place with Forfar Athletic above them. They are level on points having both played 30 games. Victory tonight would hand Paul Sheerin's side the advantage so I expect them to go all out for the win.

With 43 scored and 53 conceded so far this term, Arbroath's matches are averaging 3.2 goals each time. 17 of their 30 have gone over 2.5, including nine of their 14 at Gayfield Park.

Stenhousemuir won't have given up on their hopes of promotion just yet, despite lying six points adrift of Forfar and Arbroath in seventh. Clearly a win tonight is imperative if they are to mount a late challenge, but that's something they've not managed to do since the end of February.

The issue for Martyn Corrigan's team is that they're shipping far too many goals. Despite scoring 10 times in their last five - including three on three occasions - they haven't managed to pick up a victory. Their last three on the road have all gone over 2.5 goals and their fixtures have been averaging 3.4 goals per 90 minutes.

Bet 4: FC Brussels Tubize (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (8/11)

Our under 2.5 goals game of the week involves FC Brussels for the third time in a row and we have a 100% record with them so far.

FC Brussels are now six points clear of the relegation zone thanks to back to back victories, one of which was over Sint-Niklaas below them. They netted three times in their home game with White Star Woluwe at the weekend but that was the first time they've scored more than one in front of their own fans since the middle of November.

Their matches are averaging 2.41 goals each time, with 16 of their 29 going under 2.5. Four of their last half dozen at Edmond Machtens Stadium have had two or less and Nourredine Zaiour's men have kept back to back clean sheets.

Tubize are dropping down the table like a stone after failing to win any of their last seven matches. Scoring goals has become a major issue as Felice Mazzu's side netted just once during that period.

While their games have averaged 2.64 goals this season, their last five have all gone under 2.5, with two going under 1.5 and one even going under 0.5. They are really struggling at the moment with the only saving grace being that their defence has remained relatively firm.

Recommended Multiple

Back Caracas @ 1.85 (17/20); Back Dortmund @ 2.3 (13/10); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Arbroath v Stenhousemuir @ 1.7 (7/10); Back Under 2.5 Goals in FC Brussels Tubize @ 1.72 (8/11); The Multiple pays approximately 12.49 (23/2)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.