The Big Wednesday Multiple: Barcelona to kick off a 7/1 shot

10Apr 2013

Betfair

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Barcelona (HOME) @ 1.36 (4/11) - Sky Sports Two at 19:45

Barcelona will likely be without Lionel Messi, at least from the start, for their Champions League quarter-final second leg against PSG but I'm more than confident that they will get the win and progress to the last four.

The match in Paris finished 2-2 last week but the 2011 winners dominated large portions of that game and it took a late goal to deny them victory. Lionel Messi went off injured at half time and while he has trained with the squad, it is highly likely that he will be on the bench at best for Barca.

In any event, Cesc Fabregas played the false nine role against Mallorca on Saturday and he scored three and set another up. With the likes of David Villa and Andres Iniesta in the team, Barcelona have more than enough firepower to continue their incredible home record in the Champions League.

PSG have done well to reach the last eight given that it's their first appearance in Europe's elite club competition since 2004. They have of course spent plenty of money, but then so did Manchester City and they have gone out in the group phase for two years straight.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is the key man and while he will want to shoot down his former side, I just don't think the midfield will be able to cope with that of their opponents, especially as Blaise Matuidi is suspended.

Bet 2: Brentford (AWAY) @ 2.05 (21/20)

Our away win comes from slightly less glamorous surroundings as promotion chasing Brentford travel to Crewe, knowing that three points will take them into third place and within striking distance of the top two.

The Bees have been buzzing this season under the stewardship of Uwe Rosler. The German has got a fantastic chance of leading them into the Championship as if they win their games in hand, they will be in second position, just a single point off Doncaster who are top.

They need to put a couple of poor results behind them though - a loss at MK Dons and then a draw at Coventry. They have been much stronger at home and their recent away stats haven't been that great, however I think that now we're at the business end of the campaign, their class and will to win will shine through.

A further reason why I think that they will take all three points tonight is that Crewe lifted the Johnstone's Paint Trophy at Wembley on Sunday and it will be hard for the players to get up for this clash, especially as they have little to play for in the league.

Steve Davis' men have been in decent form lately but I have my suspicions that the players were putting in that extra bit of effort to try and make the Wembley starting XI and now that it's over, they could go into 'holiday mode' something that Swansea have done since lifting the Capital One Cup.

Bet 3: Partick v Morton (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (8/11)

Our search for goals lands us in Scotland as Partick Thistle host Greenock Morton in a mouth-watering top of the table clash in the First Division.

Partick are top and they will want to stay there as only one team get promoted to the Premier Division. They have a two point cushion over tonight's opponents in second, and they have a game in hand.

Alan Archibald has had a fantastic run since being appointed manager in January and he is yet to lose a game in the league - winning eight and drawing two.

As far as the goals go, Thistle's fixtures have been averaging 3.07 per 90 minutes, with 19 of their 30 going over 2.5, including 12 of their 15 at Firhill Stadium.

Greenock really need to win this evening as even if they draw, it's unlikely that Partick will drop enough points in their remaining five matches to surrender first place and promotion to the top flight.

While Alan Moore's side have lost two of their last three on the road, those are their only away defeats this season, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that they can pull it off.

One thing they have in their favour is their firepower away from Cappielow Park. The Ton haven't failed to score yet this term and they have netted 13 in their last five, including four at both Airdrie and Dunfermline.

Bet 4: Real Garcilaso v Cerro Porteno (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.66 (4/6) - Betfair Live Video at 23:45

We finish with a late kick-off in Peru as Real Garcilaso host Cerro Porteno in a Copa Libertadores Group Six clash.

Real Garcilaso could really do with a win tonight as it would move them into second place, three points ahead of Deportes Tolima with just one game remaining. As that game would be away at Santa Fe, anything other than victory would leave them with a bit of a mountain to climb as you would have to assume that Tolima would beat Cerro Porteno in their final fixture.

Freddy García's should win, they are red-hot favourites to do so, but I can't see them scoring too many goals. They have netted just three times from four games in this competition this season, with two of those coming away from home. They won the reverse fixture 1-0, but it took an 88th minute winner to do so.

Cerro Porteno are the group's whipping boys as they have lost all four matches thus far. In fairness to them though, they haven't been getting thrashed and all of the defeats were by a single goal margin.

The Paraguayan outfit have been regulars in the Libertadores over the past few years and it's interesting to note that since 2010, eight of their 12 matches away from Estadio General Pablo Rojas have gone under 2.5 goals.

Recommended Multiple

Back Barcelona @ 1.36 (4/11); Back Brentford @ 2.05 (21/20); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Partick v Morton @ 1.72 (8/11); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Real Garcilaso v Cerro Porteno @ 1.66 (4/6); The Multiple pays approximately 8.05 (7/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.