The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Everton

7Apr 2013

England - Premier League

With Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon both unavailable, Michael Cox thinks Spurs will struggle for width...

Tottenham v Everton, Sunday 2:05, ESPN.

Match Odds: Tottenham 2.22, Everton 3.7, The Draw 3.5

Everton's trip to White Hart Lane is a fantastic opportunity for Everton - and in particular, David Moyes - to defy their critics, and put themselves firmly in the race for a Champions League slot.

A persistent criticism of Moyes is his defensive strategy away from home. Everton have the third-best home record in the Premier League, collecting 2.06 points per game - but that figure falls to just 1.29 on their travels. A victory here would see Everton move three points behind Tottenham, with a game in hand - although that contest is another tricky trip down to North London, against Arsenal.

Both sides have significant absences for this clash. Moyes is without both Marouane Fellaini and Steven Pienaar for the second consecutive match - with Kevin Mirallas also a doubt - but Andre Villas-Boas has a more serious problems. Jermain Defoe, Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are all unavailable, which creates a real problem for the Portuguese coach.

The issue is not necessarily the quality of replacements - Emmanuel Adebayor, Lewis Holtby, Clint Dempsey and Gylfi Sigurdsson is a decent attacking quartet - but the absence of naturally pacey, direct players. Villas-Boas' Spurs are a possession-based side, but are also intent on playing quick, 'vertical' football, as Villas-Boas puts it, breaking quickly before the opposition defence is able to organise itself into a solid, deep position. Bale, Lennon and Defoe are amongst the players that epitomise that approach best.

Bale has often wandered inside from his traditional role on the left flank this season, but Lennon has reliably provided width on the right. Without that duo, Spurs have an alarming lack of natural wide men - Holtby, Dempsey and Sigurdsson all prefer being deployed centrally, and might crowd the centre of the pitch.

Therefore, Tottenham must look for width and directness from elsewhere. The role of the full-backs will be key - both Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Kyle Walker must motor forward constantly to stretch the play - but Mousa Dembele is also important. Despite playing as a central midfielder, he's Spurs' best hope of an attacking player offering dribbling and forward running, and the Belgian must ensure his side's attacks flow quickly.

Moyes remains a very reactive manager, and will be fully aware of how Spurs' absences will affect Villas-Boas' gameplan. Expect to see Everton defending even narrower than usual, and Moyes will hope Tottenham's attack-minded full-backs leave space for Everton to break into. Mirallas would be an extremely useful player in that situation, so his fitness is key to Everton's attacking chances.

In Fellaini's continued absence, there's a good chance Moyes will play two strikers - as he did in the 1-0 home win over Stoke City last week. Nikica Jelavic isn't in good form, but is likely to spearhead the side with Victor Anichebe playing behind him, and told to drop back into midfield without the ball. Anichebe, Mirallas and Coleman will be crucial on the break, while Jelavic might find himself playing as a functional target man, trying to bring others into play rather than being a significant goal threat himself.

Everton must attack here - Moyes would usually be happy with a point in this fixture, but to continue his challenge for a Champions League slot, an away win is vital. With Spurs tired after a draining Europa League draw with Basel on Thursday and missing key players for their usual gameplan, Everton should have a decent chance of a result, so I'll lay Spurs at 2.22.

There's also a decent chance of both sides scoring - that's happened in five of Spurs' last six matches, and in the vast majority of Everton's away fixtures, too. 1.85 is a good price to back in that market.

Recommended bets:

Lay Spurs at 2.22

Back Both Teams To Score at 1.85