The Big Match Tactical View: Scotland v Wales

 

Michael Cox assesses Gordon Strachan and Chris Coleman's selection decisions.

 

Scotland v Wales, Friday 8:00, Sky Sports 2.

Match Odds: Scotland 1.86, Wales 5.0, The Draw 3.8.

 

Both these countries are already past the stage where World Cup qualification is realistic. Scotland have just two points from four matches, whereas Wales' win over Scotland in Cardiff provided their only points so far. Furthermore, Group A is the group with the best runners-up in the entire qualification process - Belgium and Croatia are tied on ten points - so there's little chance of either mounting a recovery.

 

This is Gordon Strachan's first competitive game as Scotland manager, and he's sure to provide his players with more belief and organisation than predecessor Craig Levein, who constantly came under fire for his strange selection decisions - most famously, an astonishingly negative 4-6-0 away in the Czech Republic.

 

"We've been working on our system all week at training," Strachan says. "It's up to the players now to do what they are good at." And, should they continue where they left off in last month's 1-0 victory over Estonia, there will be a vast improvement upon Levein's reign - that performance was more convincing than the result suggests.

 

Strachan has suffered a blow with the absence of attacking midfielder James Morrison, who was one of Scotland's few bright performers in the qualification process so far. With Scott Brown and Darren Fletcher also unavailable, significantly weakening Scotland's midfield zone, Strachan could decide to play a straight 4-4-2 system, which would allow him to pair Steven Fletcher and Jordan Rhodes, who have both been in good goalscoring form this season. The £23m duo have recorded 99 goals in their last two seasons, and it would be a shame not to utilise both talents, considering Scotland's relatively unexciting squad.

 

The alternative is more of a 4-2-3-1 system, with the likes of Chris Burke, Steven Naismith and Kris Commons supporting Fletcher - this is more likely, but more cautious.

 

Wales coach Chris Coleman seems likely to replicate the 4-3-3 system he used in last month's friendly victory over Austria. Whereas Strachan will be considering using two traditional strikers, Coleman will probably use none - instead playing Craig Bellamy as a pacey central forward working the channels, with Gareth Bale and Jack Collison either side.

 

Bale's positioning will be interesting - no longer a simple outside-left for Tottenham, he's sometimes been fielded on the right for Wales, and will probably drift into varied zones here. That will please his former teammate Alan Hutton, who won't relish a direct battle in the right-back zone - Strachan might play the reliable Naismith on the right, and ask him to shield Hutton.

 

Despite being the away side, expect Wales to dominate possession. The trio of David Vaughan, Joe Ledley and Aaron Ramsey is good enough to cope with Joe Allen's absence, and that triangle offers more retention quality than Scotland's probable midfield zone - where Charlie Adam can be guilty of conceding possession too cheaply. The question, however, is whether Wales actually want to pin Scotland back into their own half, or whether they'd rather invite pressure before using the pace of Bale and Bellamy on the break.

 

This is a tough match to predict, primarily because you'd expect both coaches to be looking to the future, and building something for Euro 2016 - where 24 teams will qualify rather than the usual 16, a significant boost to both these countries' chances of making it. These sides are both a work in progress - it's a choice between an unknown Strachan side, and an improving but underwhelming Coleman side.

 

Still, it's a little surprising to see Scotland as short at 1.86, considering Wales' victory in the reverse fixture, and the presence of Bale - who has scored 11 times in his last 11 games. Strachan is a good appointment, but he might be looking beyond this fixture, and laying Scotland at an odds-on price sounds good to me.

 

Recommended bet:

Lay Scotland at 1.86

 

Bet HERE

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