The Big Match Tactical View: Nigeria v Burkina Faso

10Feb 2013

African Cup 2013

Michael Cox previews the Africa Cup of Nations final.

Nigeria v Burkina Faso, Sunday 6:00, Eurosport and ITV4.

Match Odds: Nigeria 2.08, Burkina Faso 4.5, The Draw 4.5.

Available at around 25.0 before the tournament, Burkina Faso's run to the final has been a huge surprise - but despite their status as underdogs, Paul Put's side have a genuine chance of triumphing in Sunday's final in Johannesburg.

Their performance against Ghana in the semi-final was superb - they might have only progressed on penalties after 1-1 victory, but they were forced to contend with a refereeing performance so shocking that Slim Jedidi was suspended by CAF after the game. Burkina Faso had a strong penalty shout turned down, a ridiculous penalty decision go against them, a goal harshly disallowed and their star player Jonathan Pitroipa wrongly sent off for diving. Four key decisions were wrong - had either of them gone the other way, Burkina Faso would have deservedly triumphed without the need for spot-kicks.

Pleasingly, Pitroipa's suspension was overturned, so he'll be available for the final. At roughly the same time that decision was made, it became clear that Nigeria's Emannuel Emenike would miss out through injury - and his fellow winger Victor Moses is another doubt. Moses has, along with Pitroipa, been the star player of the tournament - these developments meant Burkina Faso's price to win this game in 90 minutes dropped from 5.3 to 4.5.

Nigeria coach Stephen Keshi will be particularly keen to include Moses, even if he's not 100% fit. The Chelsea player has starred in this tournament by coming off the flank quickly into central playmaking positions, providing clever forward passes. Emineke's replacement will probably be Ahmed Musa, who was impressive as a substitute in the semi-final win over Mali, grabbing the fourth goal. He'll have an important defensive job against Burkina Faso's Saidou Panandetiguiri, who attacks with great energy from left-back. Otherwise, Nigeria should be unchanged.

Put has made some interesting selection decisions throughout this tournament, chopping and changing between different systems to suit the demands of the opposition. Here, the need for two holding midfielders, as he used against Ghana, might not be so necessary, but he should continue to use two secure players in that zone - as well as the attacking midfield threat of Sunday Mba, there's also Moses' drifts inside to deal with. Furthermore, Jon Obi Mikel - who plays a much more forward-thinking role - than at Chelsea - need to be pressed, as his long diagonals are crucial in Nigeria's attacking.

But while Put has a tendency to be reactive, he should keep his forward line intact. If Burkina Faso replicate the smooth passing they showcased against Ghana in the semi-final, they stand a fantastic chance of triumphing. Charles Kaboré played as the number ten, playing neat first-time passes out to Pitroipa and Prejuce Nakoulma on the flanks, while Artistide Bancé's long centre-forward play was magnificent - he came deep to link play, but also offered a threat in behind.

Another key battle will be between Nakoulma and Nigeria left-back Elderson Echiejile, who motored forward constantly and opened the scoring against Mali. Nakoulma bravely stays high and wide to stretch the play, and goals could originate from that zone.

As for Nigeria, they should test Burkina Faso's left-sided centre-back Keba Koulibaly, who is prone to mistakes in possession, and gets into poor positions when the opposition attack directly. If Ideye Brown plays up against him, making runs into that channel, Nigeria could cause serious problems.

But Burkina Faso are well overpriced here - they're outsiders, and playing 120 minutes in the semi-final played on a terrible pitch is certainly a factor, especially considering Nigeria effectively won their match by half-time. Still, Burkina Faso's passing from the back, pressing upfront and neat combination play makes them a genuinely exciting side, and they appear calm and unflustered by the pressure of playing at this stage. Back Burkina Faso to lift the trophy at 2.96.