The Big Match Tactical View: Manchester United v Fulham

26Jan 2013

FA Cup

Michael Cox expects Manchester United to rest a couple of big names, but still considers them strong favourites.

Manchester United v Fulham, Saturday 5:30, ESPN.

Match Odds: Manchester United 1.3, Fulham 12.5, The Draw 6.2.

This is a fixture you can't imagine Manchester United not winning - they have the best home record in the Premier League this season, and should take that form into the FA Cup, while Fulham are rarely good on their travels. Although the Cottagers have frequently given United problems in West London, Sir Alex Ferguson's side have won 11 of the 12 matches played at Old Trafford since Fulham's promotion to the Premier League.

Martin Jol's best hope is that Ferguson decides to rest a couple of star players. It's not unreasonable to think Robin van Persie might get a weekend off - especially since Wayne Rooney has returned from injury, but is yet to start a Premier League match this year. Javier Hernandez is also due a start, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see United's 'front four' unchanged from their FA Cup replay win over West Ham 10 days ago - Rooney behind Hernandez, with Antonio Valencia and Nani wide. That would suit Fulham - United still have quality, but both Valencia and Nani are dreadfully out of form.

In deeper positions there might be another couple of changes - Anderson could feature in midfield, as could Alexander Buttner at full-back. Phil Jones, Chris Smalling and Anders Lindegaard will also be hopeful of a start - and it's matches like this when you realise the sheer size of United's squad. 1.3 seems a little short considering United's big names might be left on the bench, and that price could drift out to something like 1.4 by the time the line-ups are revealed.

Jol's first-choice front two of Bryan Ruiz and Dimitar Berbatov doesn't appear suited to away matches where Fulham will see little of the ball, and with Giorgos Karagounis now a first-choice in the centre of the pitch, Fulham's main problem is their lack of mobility in central positions. This might be a decent game to use Chris Baird in midfield, while Jol's other decision is at left-back - with Kieran Richardson injured again, will he call upon out-of-favour John Arne Riise, or youngster Matthew Briggs?

With so many uncertain selection decisions, predicting key battlegrounds will be tricky, but United's right wing against Fulham's left will be interesting. Valencia might be out of form, but his relationship with Rafael is very good, and against a left-back likely to be short of match fitness, United should prosper down that side. Anthony Kacaniklic will probably start there, but is almost always substituted midway through the second half, so Ashkan Dejagah may play a part.

Pace in behind the Fulham defence is another key factor - assuming Hernandez starts, he'll probably look to make runs in behind Brede Hangeland, who is slow on the turn and depends on centre-back partner Aaron Hughes to get in a good covering position, and sweep up behind. Hughes is an underrated defender and is very clever at nicking the ball away from quality opponents, but Hernandez's pace might be too much for him. The Mexican has scored 12 goals this season, despite having started only 14 times, and might thrive without van Persie taking up his natural centre-forward positions. Back Hernandez to open the scoring at 5.5.

Fulham's best chance of success is to exploit the space between United's defence and midfield. Ruiz is probably their best attacker and takes up clever positions to instigate breaks, while Berbatov drops deep into that zone too. He'll be keen to make an impact against the club that relinquished his services last summer, but he'll need to rely upon the energy of Fulham's wingers to provide runs in behind.

In all, United are strong favourites - but keep an eye on the starting line-ups.