The Big Match Tactical View: Bayern Munich v Barcelona

23Apr 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

Pep Guardiola's future team meets Pep Guardiola's former team - Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle.

Bayern Munich v Barcelona, Tuesday 19:45, ITV1.

Match Odds: Bayern Munich 2.26, Barcelona 3.55, The Draw 3.55.

Champions League semi-finals don't come much bigger: this season's German champions taking on the imminent Spanish champions, in a mouth-watering two-legged tie.

Whereas Wednesday's clash between Dortmund and Real Madrid will be a battle of quick transitions and lightning fast counter-attacks, this contest will be based around possession. As you'd exepct, Barcelona average a higher percentage of possession than any other side in Europe (70%), but Bayern (64%) are their closest challengers, and the same applies to pass completion rate.

Bayern have probably been the strongest side in Europe over the course of this season, and Barcelona's disappointing record in away knockout ties in the Champions League means it's no surprise Jupp Heynckes' side are favourites for the first leg, at 2.26.

However, it's worth considering that Bayern will be without their first-choice front two. Mario Mandzukic, one of the revelations of the European campaign, is suspended after collecting two extremely soft yellow cards against Juventus, so either Mario Gomez or Claudio Pizarro will replace him. Neither are capable of the excellent all-round game Mandzukic showed against Arsenal and Juventus, where he led Bayern's pressing and kept the side compact, so he's an enormous loss.

Toni Kroos's injury is also a major problem. He was superb in last year's Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid, dropping deep into midfield to ensure Bayern dominated possession. Thomas Muller will probably played that advanced role, but as a deep forward rather than a midfielder, he lacks Kroos' technique and positional intelligence.

This also means that Arjen Robben will start on the right - and while he and Franck Ribery can be superb on the counter-attack, their defensive skills will be put to the test against Daniel Alves and Jordi Alba. Bayern are unaccustomed to not dominating possession - and it's difficult to see how they'll get numbers into the centre of the pitch to prevent Barcelona commanding the ball.

Tito Vilanova's major worry is Lionel Messi, an injury doubt, though it would be a surprise if he didn't start. Cesc Fabregas, who hit the winner in the weekend win over Levante, would be the obvious back-up. It's not inconceivable that Vilanova could start Fabregas in a deeper position and push Andres Iniesta wide, even if Messi does start - he'll want to concentrate on ball retention, though the problems with Fabregas and Iniesta eating up each other's space against Milan suggest Vilanova would be better off deploying two proper wide forwards.

Pedro Rodriguez will be one - Cristian Tello, Alexis Sanchez or David Villa could be the other. Tello is the right option in terms of balance, but Sanchez offers pace in behind the Bayern defence, which stays high up the pitch.

The key to the game is, inevitably, the midfield zone. Muller should be watching videos of Ezequiel Lavezzi's performance for PSG against Barcelona in the previous round - the Argentine marked Busquets when Barcelona had the ball, but spun in behind quickly when his side won possession. Muller must do something similar to give Bayern a good chance here.

In deeper positions, Bastian Schweinsteiger will battle against Xavi Hernandez - Xavi got the better of their clash in World Cup 2010, but Schweinsteiger should have the experience and mentality to press more, and make Xavi uncomfortable on the ball. This is also a huge test of Bayern's holding midfielder Javi Martinez - a Barcelona target last summer - he'll be charged with stopping Andres Iniesta's mazy darts forward from the left of midfield.

Barcelona's major concern is at centre-back. With Carles Puyol, Javier Mascherano and Adriano unavailable, Vilanova has a choice between converted midfielder Alex Song, youngster Marc Bartra and Eric Abidal - not long back since his liver transplant. Abidal's the best choice if fit, if not then Barta will be expected to step up. Either way, it means a Barcelona clean sheet seems unlikely - their inability to prevent the opposition from scoring has been their major weakness this season.

But - assuming Messi starts - Bayern's unavailable players will cause them more problems. 2.26 seems too short with Mandzukic and Kroos out, so laying Bayern looks a decent bet.

Recommended bet:

Lay Bayern at 2.26